Likely voter models and projecting turnout

Returning to the Ipsos approach to likely voters, we have set up a method that allows us fine grained control over our model to match the actual turnout rates (here, here and here). Of course, the perceptive polling connoisseur would ask, “great you can match to turnout, how do you know what turnout is going…

Read More...

2016 Turnout Projection – May 2015 Edition

Now that we have a model allowing us to forecast turnout for upcoming U.S. elections (link), what does our data tell us about the 2016 contest? In our way-too-early projection, the Reuters/Ipsos poll data for May 2015 indicates that 2016 turnout will be about 50% of the voting age population. With almost 18 months until election…

Read More...

Brand Strategy Made Simple: 4 Questions and a Few Alphabet Models

Of the “4Ss” driving Ipsos’ new “Game Changers” strategy (Security, Substance, Speed, and Simplicity), I have a particular passion for Simplicity.  And if there’s one area of consumer research that can really benefit from being simpler, it’s the one I head up for Ipsos in the US:  MarketQuest, which focuses on foundational market understanding and…

Read More...

TOMAmeter May 11 – 17: An Idol Has Been Crowned!

It was announced last week that next season of FOX’s American Idol will be its last. Despite marking the end of an era, congratulations are still in order for Nick Fradiani who is the winner of season 14! Mentions of American Idol caused the program to jump from beyond the Top 20 to #6 this week. The last time American Idol ranked this high was the premiere of season 12 back in January 2013!

Word Cloud May 19

Read More...

#LillyforTarget: A Lesson in Balancing Brand Image and Brand Relationships

There I was in my local Target on a Sunday afternoon, enjoying a browse sans husband and baby, when I overheard the following: Customer: “Do you have any of the Lilly Pulitzer stuff left?” Store clerk: “It sold out in like 10 minutes” I’m not very familiar with Lilly Pulitzer, in fact my introduction to…

Read More...

TOMAmeter May 4 – 10: Once Upon a Time in the TOMAmeter …

ABC’s Once Upon a Time wrapped up its fourth season this week and mentions of the program were enough to move it up eight places to #8. This is the highest the program has been since the final week of 2014 when it came in at #6.

Cloud May 12

Read More...

Incumbency is King! Political Fundamentals Put Dems and Clinton’s Odds at Only 30%

Polls, pundits and even bookmakers have already elected President Hillary Clinton. However, at this point in the Game of Oval Office Thrones, models are better oracles than polls – and the models do not like her odds.

Hillary a Slam Dunk, Right?

We are still twenty months out from the US presidential election and ten months from the first primary, but the electoral season is in full swing. Already many pundits are speculating about who will and will not take the White House in November of 2016. At the moment, Hillary Clinton is the consensus favorite. Most cite her polling numbers, popular appeal to women, and formidable war chest.

Read More...

The Most Common Innovation Mistake to Avoid

One of my favorite questions to ask clients is, “What does the term ‘innovation’ mean to your organization?” Over the years I’ve gotten used to the quizzical looks I get in response, but when it becomes clear it’s not a rhetorical question, it has led to very valuable discussions. My general observation is that most…

Read More...

Infographic: Mental Health on the Minds of Canadians

Ahead of mental health week, we asked 2,010 Canadians about their experience with mental health issues like stress and depression. The results reveal a disconnect between how Canadians are assessing their own mental state and the actual impact these issues are having on their lives.

Read More...

TOMAmeter April 27 – May 3: Grey’s Anatomy Continues to Climb!

Building off of the shocking revelation from two episodes ago, ABC’s Grey’s Anatomy swapped places with CBS’ NCIS to become the 4th most mentioned program this week. With two more episodes to go in the 11th season, look for Grey’s Anatomy to remain a strong performer in the Top 20.

May 4 word cloud

Read More...