Articles Posted in News


Ipsos Gets it Right Again!

On November 6, Americans went to the polls for the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election. When the final results were in, it was clear that Ipsos Public Affairs was a winner as one of the election’s most accurate pollsters!

Ipsos Public Affairs, together with Thomson Reuters, found themselves in the winner’s circle following Tuesday’s 2012 U.S. Presidential Election having accurately predicted the outcome.

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This Is Very Important

It isn’t often that you see a sign like this: THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT. There’s a message that will stop you in your tracks and prompt you to read more. Many of us at Ipsos did, especially when we realized, with delight, that our colleague’s article was named as The Most Important Presentation at Esomar Congress.

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Taking A Holiday Pulse

The holidays are the biggest sales season of the year – I know that personally by the line-ups I’ve stood in to see the smile on my kids’ faces come Christmas morning. But as a researcher, I also know that most marketing plans were set earlier in the year, and not necessarily reflective of new…

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Storm Clouds on the BRIC Horizon: Falling consumer optimism in Brazil, Russia, India, and China

The economic meltdown of late 2008 and early 2009, while global in nature, most squarely affected Europe, the United States, and more generally the industrialized world. In many of these places, consumer optimism fell between 30 and 40 points and has been very slow to recover since. Such dampened consumer enthusiasm, in turn, equated into serious household de-leveraging and reduced interest in spending on non-essentials goods and services. In contrast, this economic scenario only marginally affected consumers in emerging markets and, in particular, the BRIC countries. Indeed, at the same time the industrialized world was collapsing, consumer optimism and spending in emerging markets reached a fevered pitch. Many proclaimed a new world order with a new South-South economic axis. Within this context, most captains of multinationals had an emerging market strategy to help mitigate the uncertainties in Europe and the US.

That was then. What, though, is the state of global consumer sentiment today in 2012?

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Public Perspectives – September 2012

This month’s report serves up an economic and issues update revealing that Canadians (65%) are among the most positive in assessing the current economic situation in their country compared to their neighbours in the U.S. (28%). Overall, Canadians’ assessment of the national economy as well as their local economy and personal finances remains steady.

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31% of Democrats are conservative! Party ID, Voting Intention, and the political makeup of samples

Ipsos has been getting a lot of questions lately about the political makeup of polls. This is normal towards the end of an election cycle – lots of people scrutinize the polls a lot more closely! We welcome the discussions, and it offers us an opportunity to help people better understand what makes up a quality political poll.

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Live Innovation

Innovation is a cornerstone of success. Building on that, the Ipsos office in Vancouver recently hosted its own Knowledge Summit on July 17 at the Vancouver Marriott Pinnacle Downtown Hotel. The event – It’s Cool to be Innovative – showcased tips, techniques, and cool research methodologies in terms of customer understanding, and taking brand and business success to the next level.

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Game of Inches #2 — Likely Independent Voters: Who they are? And what do they think?

The US presidential election in November will be a close one.  Many poll watchers, myself included, see this one as a nail bitter which will be won at the margins.  I still strongly believe that Obama will be the victor (link) but details and not generalities will carry the day.

In elections of this type, success is typically defined by a percentage point here, another there.  This puts a special premium on targeting and winning over those undecideds constituencies who have not chosen their champion.  One such group is likely independent voters who will probably show up at the ballot box, but do not lean strongly towards Republicans or Democrats.  Without a doubt, both the Romney and Obama camps will be giving this segment a very close look this electoral season.

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A, RV, LV (All adults, registered voters, likely voters)? Population effects in public opinion polling

As we count down to the November general election, opinion research outfits (like us) are going to release an ever-increasing number and variety of election poll results. Poll aggregation sites (link) help polling consumers make sense of this barrage of data by presenting the average results of the most recent polls. The running average is supposed to iron-out potential outliers or the idiosyncrasies of any one poll to provide a stable, and accurate, benchmark. However, aggregation sites also combine surveys of differing (though overlapping) populations, specifically all Americans, registered voters and likely voters. Do these different populations have different profiles and could they be systematically skewing the aggregator average?

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A Game of Inches #1: Obama’s Lukewarm Faithful

The Obama-Romney match up is shaping up to be a nail biter. Our most recent Reuters-Ipsos poll has them in a statistical deadheat; other polls show a similar narrowing. Part of this trend is without a doubt a direct result of a dip in economic optimism, a dysfunctional Europe and lousy jobs report. But this variability is also just the natural ebb and flow of the election. Sometimes you are up; other times you are down.

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