Articles Posted in Elections

Incumbency is still King: Brazil’s Dilma is still the favorite in 2014, even after the protests.

The Brazilian presidential election is more than a year away. But already pundits and the odds-makers are assessing President Dilma’s chances of being reelected.  For many, dark clouds are on her horizon.  Why?

Some cite a very lethargic economy with inflation and unemployment ticking up.  Others stress the recent widespread protests as a general sign of the public’s discontent with Dilma and the PT.  Still others argue that the rise of the middle class has shifted voter priorities from the economy and jobs to quality of life issues like healthcare, crime, transportation, and education, with the Dilma government being ill-prepared to meet these new demands.


Storm clouds on the Brazilian horizon? President Dilma’s poll numbers and her reelection chances

In 2010, Dilma Rouseff, Lula’s handpicked successor, won easily in the second round run-off election against Jose Serra, the opposition candidate (Dilma 56% of vote versus 44% Serra).  At the time, many analysts thought Dilma would stumble—lacking both the charisma and political skills of her predecessor Lula and, as a result, would lean heavily on Lula’s skills and credibility.  Contrary to this popular belief , Dilma has established herself as a strong leader, with little tolerance for corruption, and a strong streak of independence.

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Teetering on the edge: The 2013 Kenyan Presidential election

Today, Keynans will vote for a new president.  The whole world is watching as well.  Why?  The last Kenyan presidential election in 2007 lead to widespread violence as supporters of Raila Odinga accused Mwai Kibaki and his supporters of stealing the election. Given that politics in Kenya is often strongly linked to tribal affiliation, much of the violence was directed by members of one tribe toward those of another. At its core, much of the violence found its origins in many long-standing economic grievances. Against this backdrop, the international community has kept a close eye on this election.

One constitutional change resulting from the violence in 2007 was that if no one candidate gets a majority of the votes, there will automatically be a second round run-off election between the top two vote getters within 30 days of the first round election-day.

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Chávez, Variable Polls, and Misiones: Reflections on the Venezuelan Presidential Election

On 7 October 2012, Venezuelans showed up to cast their vote for president on Election Day with an unprecedented sign of voter enthusiasm pushing final turnout up over 80%. This race pitted Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, the incumbent and long-sitting president, against the 40-year-old opposition candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonski. Just this on its own would provide sufficient suspense for most. This electoral campaign, however, was one of particular drama and uncertainty

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Ipsos Gets it Right Again!

On November 6, Americans went to the polls for the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election. When the final results were in, it was clear that Ipsos Public Affairs was a winner as one of the election’s most accurate pollsters!

Ipsos Public Affairs, together with Thomson Reuters, found themselves in the winner’s circle following Tuesday’s 2012 U.S. Presidential Election having accurately predicted the outcome.

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Quebec Sovereignty Referendum: What Canadians Think Now That a New Parti Québécois Government is in Place?

The election of the Parti Québécois on September 4th as the new government of Quebec under the leadership of incoming premier Pauline Marois marks the first separatist government in nearly a decade.

On behalf of Global Television and Postmedia News, we conducted a poll to find out what Canadians – both inside and outside Quebec – think now that a new Parti Québécois Government is in place.


31% of Democrats are conservative! Party ID, Voting Intention, and the political makeup of samples

Ipsos has been getting a lot of questions lately about the political makeup of polls. This is normal towards the end of an election cycle – lots of people scrutinize the polls a lot more closely! We welcome the discussions, and it offers us an opportunity to help people better understand what makes up a quality political poll.


Game of Inches #2 — Likely Independent Voters: Who they are? And what do they think?

The US presidential election in November will be a close one.  Many poll watchers, myself included, see this one as a nail bitter which will be won at the margins.  I still strongly believe that Obama will be the victor (link) but details and not generalities will carry the day.

In elections of this type, success is typically defined by a percentage point here, another there.  This puts a special premium on targeting and winning over those undecideds constituencies who have not chosen their champion.  One such group is likely independent voters who will probably show up at the ballot box, but do not lean strongly towards Republicans or Democrats.  Without a doubt, both the Romney and Obama camps will be giving this segment a very close look this electoral season.


A, RV, LV (All adults, registered voters, likely voters)? Population effects in public opinion polling

As we count down to the November general election, opinion research outfits (like us) are going to release an ever-increasing number and variety of election poll results. Poll aggregation sites (link) help polling consumers make sense of this barrage of data by presenting the average results of the most recent polls. The running average is supposed to iron-out potential outliers or the idiosyncrasies of any one poll to provide a stable, and accurate, benchmark. However, aggregation sites also combine surveys of differing (though overlapping) populations, specifically all Americans, registered voters and likely voters. Do these different populations have different profiles and could they be systematically skewing the aggregator average?


A Game of Inches #1: Obama’s Lukewarm Faithful

The Obama-Romney match up is shaping up to be a nail biter. Our most recent Reuters-Ipsos poll has them in a statistical deadheat; other polls show a similar narrowing. Part of this trend is without a doubt a direct result of a dip in economic optimism, a dysfunctional Europe and lousy jobs report. But this variability is also just the natural ebb and flow of the election. Sometimes you are up; other times you are down.