Articles Posted in Elections


Forget the debate: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016

The following article by Clifford Young and Julia Clark originally appeared in Reuters: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/10/14/forget-what-you-saw-last-night-two-simple-reasons-a-republican-is-likely-to-win-in-2016/ Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways. Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican…

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The rise of Neo-Nativism: Putting Trump into Proper Context

by Cliff Young and Chris Jackson Many argue that Trump’s rise in the polls is nothing but a fluke (link, link, and link); that once the Republican voters come to their senses, a more credible candidate will emerge (link, link, and link).  These people may be right; horse race polls are ephemeral at best this…

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Election Poll Accuracy Over Time

Election polls especially suffer from two specific types of measurement error: (1) election salience among voters at the time of the poll and (2) strategic voting decisions at the time of the vote which are at odds with poll responses. On point one, the research literature shows that the farther a poll is out from…

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What an Actual Trump Voter Looks Like

This post, written by Cliff Young and Julia Clark, originally appeared in The Daily Beast.  We thought Trump was just a summer fling for the GOP, but it’s becoming increasingly more likely that some Republicans have met their match. Donald Trump has been a larger-than-life figure for almost a generation: businessman, entertainer, pageant purveyor, and…

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American Partisan Support for U.S. Iran Policy

Foreign policy is traditionally a strength of the Republican Party. Americans often prefer Republican positions on international issues particularly in situations that involve conflict. However, part of the core rationale for Barack Obama’s candidacy in 2008 was his opposition to the war in Iraq. Can history repeat itself and can Obama’s nuanced approach to foreign…

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Education levels among U.S. Elected Officials Part Two

By Saide Ashaboglu Last post (link) we discussed how U.S. politicians’ education levels differed from the general population, which yielded an interesting comparison.  Fora second deep dive, we decided to look at differences between the Democratic and Republican parties. The politicians we looked at hold office as Representatives, Senators, and Governors. One question that intrigued…

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2016 Turnout Projection Update – June 2015

In recent posts I’ve outlined how we plan to use our Reuters/Ipsos survey data to forecast turnout for the 2016 presidential election and shown where we stand – with our way too early estimate – as of May 2015. In this post, I’d like to bring in some other proof points, expand our analysis a bit and update our turnout projections.

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Likely voter models and projecting turnout

Returning to the Ipsos approach to likely voters, we have set up a method that allows us fine grained control over our model to match the actual turnout rates (here, here and here). Of course, the perceptive polling connoisseur would ask, “great you can match to turnout, how do you know what turnout is going…

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2016 Turnout Projection – May 2015 Edition

Now that we have a model allowing us to forecast turnout for upcoming U.S. elections (link), what does our data tell us about the 2016 contest? In our way-too-early projection, the Reuters/Ipsos poll data for May 2015 indicates that 2016 turnout will be about 50% of the voting age population. With almost 18 months until election…

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Incumbency is King! Political Fundamentals Put Dems and Clinton’s Odds at Only 30%

Polls, pundits and even bookmakers have already elected President Hillary Clinton. However, at this point in the Game of Oval Office Thrones, models are better oracles than polls – and the models do not like her odds.

Hillary a Slam Dunk, Right?

We are still twenty months out from the US presidential election and ten months from the first primary, but the electoral season is in full swing. Already many pundits are speculating about who will and will not take the White House in November of 2016. At the moment, Hillary Clinton is the consensus favorite. Most cite her polling numbers, popular appeal to women, and formidable war chest.

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