The data from the Ipsos/NPR Study of Millennials was released today. For full analysis, please visit Ipsos News and Polls. Younger voters, or Millennials (ages 18-34), are distinct from their older counterparts on a number of dimensions, but strikingly similar on others. In particular, when it comes to differences, younger voters are: More progressive in…

Over the last week or so the polls have narrowed: where Clinton had an 8-point lead over Trump, they are now in a near dead heat. The question, of course, is why?  The reasons, in my mind, are diverse yet interrelated. First, part of this narrowing is the natural regression to the mean which we…

Only 83 days until Election Day! It has been a rough couple of weeks for Trump and a correspondingly good few for Clinton.  She leads Trump by an average of about 8 points, looking across all the polls. As we head into this final stretch, key qualities—both policy positions and personal attributes—will come into greater…

Party Identification Long-term decline in identification with either party: Democrats and Republicans Increase in identification as Independent 2016 seems to have frayed these party bonds even more: especially for Republicans But not yet sure if this is just short-term, or a long-term trend Third Parties in Global Context There is more experience with the effect…

Since early June, our Reuters/Ipsos horse race ballot question (Clinton versus Trump) has shown a larger spread (Clinton-Trump) than the average of the market. Specifically, over this time our poll has given Clinton, on average, a 10-point lead, while that of the market has been narrower at 5-points. So why the difference? We analyzed a…

The present consensus among pundits is that Trump has lost serious momentum since shoring up the minimum number of delegates in early May. Is there any truth to this? The short answer is yes. Trump has lost steam since May. Indeed, after early gains in his favorability scores, they have been flat, hovering in the…

Introduction A year ago who would have believed it—Trump the presumptive nominee for the Republican party! For the longest time, most expected Trump would implode. But to the prognosticators chagrin this did not happen. I personally began to question my own assumptions about Trump during the summer of 2015. At that time, Trump was in…

Trump has forcefully pushed a strong “American Exceptionalism” rejuvenation narrative typified by his campaign slogan— “MAKE America Great Again!” Often Trump operationalizes this slogan in speeches as “we need to take America back” or some derivation thereof. To what degree do people agree with the message? And why? Republicans are much more likely than Democrats…

Trump has been winning on his “Make America Great Again” appeal. His message has a strong “American-First” and “Nativist” undertone which resonates. How has this rhetoric played out over time? Is it on the rise in the US? Simple answer is no; it is not on the rise. Indeed, it is quite stable over the…

Over the last week, Trump’s numbers across the board have tanked: fav scores, likability, primary vote share, general election vote share, etc.  This implosion has been attributed (and rightly so) to Trump’s consistent and relentless slights against women. No need to cite the events as the list is very long. So it’s Women that…