Is President Obama up or down?: The effect of question wording on levels of presidential support

Presidential approval ratings are the most ubiquitous polling data out there. Given their importance, approval ratings receive special scrutiny from political actors and poll watchers alike. Ipsos has tracked approval ratings in the US since 2001, and during this time, our polls have shown a consistent 2 to 4 point difference when compared to the market average (the average of all polls at the time).

Why is this? We hypothesize two possibilities: (1) first, we have a problem with our sample composition, or (2) second, that we measure presidential approval differently than other polling firms.

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A tale of two bases: the 2012 Republican primaries in perspective

The Republican primary season is all but over.  Romney is on his way to being the nominee and will hawk his wares against Obama in the general elections in November.  In the end, Republicans went with the frontrunner; they always do.  Still, the Republican primary had its fairy tale moments and carnivalesque personalities.

In my view, there are two key inter-related aspects of the primaries that deserve attention: (1) Romney’s relative weakness and (2) the continued supply of conservative pretenders.  Indeed, we should not forget that Bachman, Cain, Perry, Gingrich, and Santorum all led Romney at varying points in time (see graph at RCP).

The natural question, then, is:  Why did Romney have such a tough time resonating with the broader Republican base?

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Seattle Knowledge Summit 2012: Collaborate, Integrate & Innovate – Moving from Data to Insights

We’ve been planning this one for a while and the day is finally here! Our 2012 Seattle Knowledge Summit. The Pacific Northwest is known for its natural beauty and quality lifestyle but it is also home to some of the most innovative and forward-thinking companies in America. What better way to connect with Seattle-area marketers than with a Knowledge Summit themed on collaboration, integration and innovation – its what we’re known for in this region.

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Catching the Tablet Wave: An FYI from Ipsos MediaCT

Last year we wondered what the future would hold for the tablet PC. Well, it is almost the middle of 2012 now and the tablet PC is gaining more momentum. The majority of internet users now want to own one of these devices and a significant number plan to purchase one before the end of the year.

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Ipsos Ideas: The Beat Goes On…

Everything changes. Everything stays the same. Our technologies have us connecting, sharing, talking and learning in newer, faster and more revolutionary ways. But at its core, it remains about people. You need to understand the beat they march to. And Ipsos can help.

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Examining Shifts in Public Opinion: Global Warming Policy Trends 2010-2012

Jon Krosnick is a frequent collaborator with Ipsos Public Affairs on methodological and public opinion issues. Prof. Krosnick is University Fellow at Resources for the Future and a professor of communications, political science and psychology at Stanford University. This post is as a guest contributor discussing the implications of the recently released research found here

Our research team at Stanford has been tracking American public opinion on global warming since the mid-1990s, and Americans’ views on this issue have changed much like people’s views on other political issues change over time: slowly.  The civil rights movement led to a change in public attitudes about race, but the change happened gradually.  Likewise, the public health community convinced Americans that smoking cigarettes is dangerous to human health, but again, the proportion of people endorsing this view grew slowly over decades.  Despite tremendous amounts of public discussion and debate about whether global warming is real and a threat during the last decade and a half, the proportions of Americans who have expressed various opinions on the issue have remained remarkably consistent.

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Reflection on the French Presidential Election: “Change” the graveyard of incumbents

I have been meaning to comment on the French presidential elections for some time.

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From Good to Great Communications: How Emotions Can Help

Recently, I was asked by an industry peer what really made for great communications. I couldn’t help but reflect on the ads that mattered to me, and that influenced my decision making. The ads that I remember first really paying attention to when I was much younger were the classic long distance commercials. They really stuck with me. Even to this day, I continue to patronize the brand that resonated with me back then, even though back then I had no ability to act on it.

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Writing Concepts As If Guided by Voices

If a successful company like P&G – with a claimed 50% success rate for new products, versus an industry average of 15-20% – spends eight years developing Tide Pods, don’t our good ideas deserve just a bit more nurturing than we are giving them?  A good idea, poorly executed, will fail – same as a poor idea, well executed.  A successful concept requires both a good idea and proper execution.  Success of this nature can absolutely happen on a deadline, but it’s less likely to happen if you procrastinate right up until the deadline.

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Obama and the Youth Vote: Losing His Grip?

Obama may have reason to be nervous about declining among young voters this year.

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