Carson’s Departure Doesn’t Change Much (2016 Republican Primary)

Ben Carson ended his run for the 2016 Republican nomination on Friday, March 4 (link) after briefly surging in polling last fall but winning no primaries this year. His departure comes during repeated calls from the Republican Party leadership for the party to coalesce around a candidate (but Trump). Some hope that without Carson in the race, the ~10% of Republicans (link) still supporting him will move to support one of the establishment candidates like Marco Rubio. Our data indicates that is unlikely to happen.

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Super Tuesday States Poll: Clinton and Trump poised for victories

With Super Tuesday tonight, the battle between the establishment and anti-establishment of the Republican and Democratic contests are coming to a head. On the Republican side, Donald Trump holds a strong position. Can Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio come up with some (surprise) wins to delay Trump’s increasingly likely victory? On the Democratic side, Hillary…

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Why Donald Trump has a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination

New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Nevada: the evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. Those who doubt a Trump victory believe that Republican voters will at some point come to their senses, while others see a narrowing field as one that favors Trump’s competition. We have always been bullish on a Trump nomination. Indeed, in September, we gave Trump a 45 percent chance of being nominated. Today, less than a week before Super Tuesday, we give Trump a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican Party nomination based on the available evidence.

Here’s why.

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Trump and Sanders: Two Sides of the Same Coin

Elections are cyclical: “more of the same v. throw the bums out” Longer-term macro trends: wage stagnation and inequality Widespread belief that Middle Class and America’s best days behind it Inequality or Opportunity Problem However, differential framing of inequality-opportunity problem: Dems: Rich getting Richer; Middle Class squeeze Reps: America losing its greatness; fear of the other

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Impact of 2016 Primaries on Voter Enthusiasm

Our presidential primary system is a unique, complicated and dynamic system that seems to be engineered more for drama than actually selecting a leader. After each contest pundits and candidates battle over who has “momentum” in an effort to both frame the next chapter and fire up supporters. Electoral losses are referred to as “demoralizing losses”, while victories are going to “energize supporters”. Regular political news covers (in very minute detail) the poll gains and losses of the candidates. What is less well studied is how election fortunes affect the enthusiasm of candidates’ supporters. After a big win or tough loss, are people fired up? Or ready to give up?

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TOMAmeter January 2016 – The Truth is Out There

Tomameter 2

January of 2016 brought along with it some of the most buzzed about new TV programming in recent memory, highlighted by the return of the cult classic Fox sci-fi series, The X-Files, which attained the #6 spot in the TOMAmeter rankings. Also making the rankings for January was Netflix’s true crime docuseries Making a Murderer (#13), which, while technically released in December, was ever-present in cultural discussion during January.

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What Americans Were Thinking as the New Year Began

americans think new year 2016
In a recent study conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs Omnibus Division, “What Americans were thinking as the new year began”, surprisingly, only 1 in 5 expressed concern for the stock market in 2016. Maybe they are well insulated with my investment strategy, or their prognostication skills are worse than the millions who picked the Carolina Panthers to dribble the Denver Bronco’s fribble in Super Bowl 50, or thankfully they have an intelligent head on their shoulders and realize the market rises and falls with regularity.

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Canadians Say Country Heading in Wrong Direction

The honeymoon for the new federal Liberal government is likely coming to an end. In three short months, a majority of Canadians have gone from believing that the country is heading in the right direction to believing that we are now off on the wrong track. This is the widest disparity with negatives outweighing positives…

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Eight in Ten Rate Driving and Smoking Marijuana as being Extremely Unsafe

However, Driving while Texting and Driving While Taking “Selfies” Seen as Significantly More Dangerous Marijuana has long been a topic of debate and controversy in America, and despite the decriminalization and legalization of marijuana use in some states, many Americans continue to uphold certain views and attitudes as to the perceived dangers of marijuana use.…

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Going Viral – Zika Awareness up 20 percentage points since Jan 27th

On Monday, Feb 1, the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency due to the Zika virus – leading to the rare international crisis where Americans are paying attention. As a refresher, the Zika virus is spread through mosquito bites and since the first case was reported in Brazil last May, it has spread…

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