Why Likely Voters

A few weeks ago, the Reuters/Ipsos poll, along with other pollsters, began reporting on likely voters in addition to registered voters. In past years, we would make this change and go about our day with little comment, but as polling is increasingly scrutinized, and given Ipsos’ total commitment to transparency, we think it’s important to…

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TOMAmeter July 2016: Seasonal Events Start to Take the Spotlight

With the Olympics just a month away, it’s no surprise to see that the 2016 Rio Olympics is the latest new entry into the TOMAmeter at #6, as pre-Olympics previews and Olympics trials wrap up and athletes begin to travel to Brazil. Coverage of the Olympics will be at its peak during the month of…

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Third Parties and Their Effect: Talking Points for the Diane Rehm Show

Party Identification Long-term decline in identification with either party: Democrats and Republicans Increase in identification as Independent 2016 seems to have frayed these party bonds even more: especially for Republicans But not yet sure if this is just short-term, or a long-term trend Third Parties in Global Context There is more experience with the effect…

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The Rationale Behind the Redesign of the Reuters/Ipsos Presidential Ballot Question

Since early June, our Reuters/Ipsos horse race ballot question (Clinton versus Trump) has shown a larger spread (Clinton-Trump) than the average of the market. Specifically, over this time our poll has given Clinton, on average, a 10-point lead, while that of the market has been narrower at 5-points. So why the difference? We analyzed a…

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The Unlikable Duo: Trump and Clinton

The present consensus among pundits is that Trump has lost serious momentum since shoring up the minimum number of delegates in early May. Is there any truth to this? The short answer is yes. Trump has lost steam since May. Indeed, after early gains in his favorability scores, they have been flat, hovering in the…

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Canadian Views on the North American Free Trade Agreement

On the eve of the Republican Convention and as Donald Trump (if elected President) is poised to renegotiate or break NAFTA, we asked Canadians how they feel about the agreement that has governed US/Canada/Mexico trade since 1994. Overall Canadians support NAFTA more than ever (now at 79% vs 64% in 2001).  Canadians are also more…

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TOMAmeter June 2016 – Game of Thrones Continues to Rule the Roost!

With season 6 of Game of Thrones ending in June 2016, the show continued to be at the top of the Top 20’s list, with Orange is the New Black coming in second following its June 17th premiere on Netflix – a big rise from the #9 rank it had last month. Though Game of…

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Is Brexit a Reflection of What is to Come?

The Brexit vote appears to have caught some leaders and pundits off guard. But it shouldn’t have, especially given that trust in government/leadership worldwide has dropped 7 points since 2012. Furthermore, a majority of citizens worldwide believe their governments/leaders are in power for themselves, while only about four-in-ten believe that their governments/leaders are in touch,…

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TOMAmeter May 2016 – Game of Thrones Mania Hits Its Peak

The end of the 2015-2016 broadcast season and the start of the summer TV season brings the annual tradition that is Game of Thrones-mania to the forefront of  the TV world. Game of Thrones took the #1 spot across almost all demographics, with The Walking Dead following close behind. Other big movers for the month…

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It’s Nativism: Explaining the Drivers of Trump’s Popular Support

Introduction A year ago who would have believed it—Trump the presumptive nominee for the Republican party! For the longest time, most expected Trump would implode. But to the prognosticators chagrin this did not happen. I personally began to question my own assumptions about Trump during the summer of 2015. At that time, Trump was in…

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