Forget the debate: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016

The following article by Clifford Young and Julia Clark originally appeared in Reuters: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/10/14/forget-what-you-saw-last-night-two-simple-reasons-a-republican-is-likely-to-win-in-2016/ Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways. Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican…

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TOMAmeter October 5 – October 11: Cable TOMA Leaders Decline

This week saw the continued decline of Fear the Walking Dead (#10) and Game of Thrones (#11); since the week of August 24th, the two programs have both either declined or stayed flat in the TOMAmeter rankings each week. This is in line with last year’s TOMAmeter rankings, which saw Game of Thrones drop out…

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The rise of Neo-Nativism: Putting Trump into Proper Context

by Cliff Young and Chris Jackson Many argue that Trump’s rise in the polls is nothing but a fluke (link, link, and link); that once the Republican voters come to their senses, a more credible candidate will emerge (link, link, and link).  These people may be right; horse race polls are ephemeral at best this…

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TOMAmeter September 28 – October 4: The Blacklist Rises in the Rankings

Our big mover in the TOMAmeter this week was NBC’s The Blacklist, which rose by 11 spots to #5 in the rankings following its premiere on Thursday. This matches its highest ranking this year, attained in March, and on par with last season’s premiere week. Entering the TOMAmeter for the first time is ABC’s new…

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Election Poll Accuracy Over Time

Election polls especially suffer from two specific types of measurement error: (1) election salience among voters at the time of the poll and (2) strategic voting decisions at the time of the vote which are at odds with poll responses. On point one, the research literature shows that the farther a poll is out from…

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TOMAmeter September 21 – September 27: New Shows Begin to Invade the TOMAmeter

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In the first week of the new TV season, we are now seeing several of the fall’s newest shows entering the top twenty in unaided mention in the TOMAmeter. In addition to NBC’s Blindspot, which moved upwards by six spots to #11 in the rankings, this week saw the new entry of Fox’s Scream Queens (#10) and ABC’s The Muppets (#19).

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Happy it’s Back to School?

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Why do so many parents look like fans jumping out of their collective seats at an exciting sporting event, the day their kids head back to school?

Maybe it’s the release of the Kraken from its summer nest, or all the free time work-from-home-adults suddenly achieve, or the unabashed excitement parents feel towards the Matterhorn of homework about to be poured down their children’s throats!  Whatever the reason, school is back in session, and bus driver Bob is rumbling, bumbling, and stumbling down every back woods street across America delivering our most precious assets to and from their daily dose of academic enrichment.

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TOMAmeter September 14 – September 20: The Return of the Network TV Season

With the major broadcast networks entering their premiere weeks, we saw bumps for several seasonal staples, as well as our first new broadcast show, NBC’s Blindspot (#17). Though Blindspot is only the first new network show to enter the TOMAmeter, it promises to be followed by several highly anticipated new shows over the next few…

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When It Comes to Buying Power, Does Age Matter?

It’s official! Millennials are now the largest generation in the workforce, overtaking both Boomers and Gen-Xers over the past year or so. The potential for marketplace dominance in consumer purchasing power for Millennials is staggering. Most corporations have been preparing and positioning themselves for this eventuality, directing resources and decision making for the future success…

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Curating the Ideas Behind Innovation: Five Tools for Innovative Creativity!

Innovation is a many faceted thing, isn’t it? Definitions vary, as do outcomes, and our very feelings about Innovation. It’s hard to have a conversation, much less a thought about Innovation without including Apple, Space X, Uber or Amazon Prime these days. Aside from the amazing innovations we enjoy by these brands in durables, new…

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