Articles Posted in Research

The Rationale Behind the Redesign of the Reuters/Ipsos Presidential Ballot Question

Since early June, our Reuters/Ipsos horse race ballot question (Clinton versus Trump) has shown a larger spread (Clinton-Trump) than the average of the market. Specifically, over this time our poll has given Clinton, on average, a 10-point lead, while that of the market has been narrower at 5-points. So why the difference? We analyzed a…

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A Vitamin a Day… Doesn’t Keep the Doctor Away?

For better or (more likely) for worse, I tend to have an “all or nothing” type of personality. And as of late, my health is my focus. With this in mind, I’ve mixed up my gym routine as my goal is to tackle a triathlon this year. I’ve been eating more nutrient-packed foods, and have…

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Canadian Views on the North American Free Trade Agreement

On the eve of the Republican Convention and as Donald Trump (if elected President) is poised to renegotiate or break NAFTA, we asked Canadians how they feel about the agreement that has governed US/Canada/Mexico trade since 1994. Overall Canadians support NAFTA more than ever (now at 79% vs 64% in 2001).  Canadians are also more…

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Turnout and the D-R “Enthusiasm Gap”

My working hypothesis is that “swing voters” are mostly a myth created by pollsters (SORRY) and the media. The idea that there is some large swath of the population who, despite our nation’s immensely partisan tendencies, are compelled to fairly regularly change the party the vote for between D and R from election to election seems too fantastical. Party identity in the US is deeply rooted in values and identity, and not fleeting fancy. Of course we know there are some genuine swing voters out there, but not – in my view – in the numbers popularly conceived.

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Ipsos Analysis of Donald Trump’s Climb to 1,237 Delegates

The notion of a contested convention for the Republican presidential nomination has gained traction over the last several weeks. A contested convention (also known as a brokered convention) would occur in the event that none of the Republican nominees were able to reach the 1,237 delegate threshold needed in order to clinch the nomination.

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Carson’s Departure Doesn’t Change Much (2016 Republican Primary)

Ben Carson ended his run for the 2016 Republican nomination on Friday, March 4 (link) after briefly surging in polling last fall but winning no primaries this year. His departure comes during repeated calls from the Republican Party leadership for the party to coalesce around a candidate (but Trump). Some hope that without Carson in the race, the ~10% of Republicans (link) still supporting him will move to support one of the establishment candidates like Marco Rubio. Our data indicates that is unlikely to happen.

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Impact of 2016 Primaries on Voter Enthusiasm

Our presidential primary system is a unique, complicated and dynamic system that seems to be engineered more for drama than actually selecting a leader. After each contest pundits and candidates battle over who has “momentum” in an effort to both frame the next chapter and fire up supporters. Electoral losses are referred to as “demoralizing losses”, while victories are going to “energize supporters”. Regular political news covers (in very minute detail) the poll gains and losses of the candidates. What is less well studied is how election fortunes affect the enthusiasm of candidates’ supporters. After a big win or tough loss, are people fired up? Or ready to give up?

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What Americans Were Thinking as the New Year Began

americans think new year 2016
In a recent study conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs Omnibus Division, “What Americans were thinking as the new year began”, surprisingly, only 1 in 5 expressed concern for the stock market in 2016. Maybe they are well insulated with my investment strategy, or their prognostication skills are worse than the millions who picked the Carolina Panthers to dribble the Denver Bronco’s fribble in Super Bowl 50, or thankfully they have an intelligent head on their shoulders and realize the market rises and falls with regularity.

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Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Trumpism

In a few other posts [here and here], we poked at the idea that the theme driving Trump’s campaign, Make America Great Again, may be emotional nostalgia — for a time in America when the only barrier to success was one’s willingness to work for it, jobs were plentiful, and the stock market was booming — and…

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Trump and Nativism – Is There a Connection?

Day after day, we continue to see the news splattered with headlines in reference to Trump’s lead in the GOP polls – and many wonder why. In September, we decided to dig a bit deeper into the core driver of Trump’s campaign – Make America Great Again. Unsurprisingly, our poll found nativist sentiment is stronger…

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