Articles Posted in Public Opinion

Understanding Society: Economic Crises, Election Victories, New Challenges

I am pleased to share the Ipsos Social Research Institute’s latest report – Understanding Society: Economic crises, election victories, new challenges.

This report brings together experts from across the Ipsos Social Research Institute to consider the period of extraordinary change many nations have witnessed over the last few years, since the 2007/8 global economic crisis. Understanding Society covers a range of key political, social and economic issues facing the world.

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Public Perspectives: The NAFTA Partners

In the October edition of Public Perspectives we shift our focus to the NAFTA partners. For this report, citizens in the United States, Canada, and Mexico assess their happiness, country direction and issue concerns. The report provides an in-depth look into the similarities and differences between the NAFTA partners across these topics and more.

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Quebec Sovereignty Referendum: What Canadians Think Now That a New Parti Québécois Government is in Place?

The election of the Parti Québécois on September 4th as the new government of Quebec under the leadership of incoming premier Pauline Marois marks the first separatist government in nearly a decade.

On behalf of Global Television and Postmedia News, we conducted a poll to find out what Canadians – both inside and outside Quebec – think now that a new Parti Québécois Government is in place.

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Public Perspectives – September 2012

This month’s report serves up an economic and issues update revealing that Canadians (65%) are among the most positive in assessing the current economic situation in their country compared to their neighbours in the U.S. (28%). Overall, Canadians’ assessment of the national economy as well as their local economy and personal finances remains steady.

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31% of Democrats are conservative! Party ID, Voting Intention, and the political makeup of samples

Ipsos has been getting a lot of questions lately about the political makeup of polls. This is normal towards the end of an election cycle – lots of people scrutinize the polls a lot more closely! We welcome the discussions, and it offers us an opportunity to help people better understand what makes up a quality political poll.

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Public Perceptions of Ontario Hospitals

Recently, our program evaluation team produced a detailed report titled, Public Perceptions of Hospitals: Report on Ontario Hospitals, exploring public perceptions of hospitals across the province. The report measures public opinion of hospital performance on various publicly reported issues, including hospital cleanliness and hospital acquired infections.

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Game of Inches #2 — Likely Independent Voters: Who they are? And what do they think?

The US presidential election in November will be a close one.  Many poll watchers, myself included, see this one as a nail bitter which will be won at the margins.  I still strongly believe that Obama will be the victor (link) but details and not generalities will carry the day.

In elections of this type, success is typically defined by a percentage point here, another there.  This puts a special premium on targeting and winning over those undecideds constituencies who have not chosen their champion.  One such group is likely independent voters who will probably show up at the ballot box, but do not lean strongly towards Republicans or Democrats.  Without a doubt, both the Romney and Obama camps will be giving this segment a very close look this electoral season.

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A, RV, LV (All adults, registered voters, likely voters)? Population effects in public opinion polling

As we count down to the November general election, opinion research outfits (like us) are going to release an ever-increasing number and variety of election poll results. Poll aggregation sites (link) help polling consumers make sense of this barrage of data by presenting the average results of the most recent polls. The running average is supposed to iron-out potential outliers or the idiosyncrasies of any one poll to provide a stable, and accurate, benchmark. However, aggregation sites also combine surveys of differing (though overlapping) populations, specifically all Americans, registered voters and likely voters. Do these different populations have different profiles and could they be systematically skewing the aggregator average?

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A Game of Inches #1: Obama’s Lukewarm Faithful

The Obama-Romney match up is shaping up to be a nail biter. Our most recent Reuters-Ipsos poll has them in a statistical deadheat; other polls show a similar narrowing. Part of this trend is without a doubt a direct result of a dip in economic optimism, a dysfunctional Europe and lousy jobs report. But this variability is also just the natural ebb and flow of the election. Sometimes you are up; other times you are down.

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Wisconsin is all noise: Obama will still win in November

The sitting Republican Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker beat the Democratic challenger Tom Barrett 53% to 46% yesterday in a recall election. Many pundits had touted Wisconsin as a political bellweather— “as goes Wisconsin, so goes the nation in November and beyond”. A Walker victory signals a resurgent Republican party with its revamped small government, collective-bargaining-busting mantra. In contrast, a Walker loss would be a strong ‘proof point’ that the Obama agenda is here to stay.

Well, Walker won in Wisconsin.

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