Articles Posted in Public Opinion


The Rationale Behind the Redesign of the Reuters/Ipsos Presidential Ballot Question

Since early June, our Reuters/Ipsos horse race ballot question (Clinton versus Trump) has shown a larger spread (Clinton-Trump) than the average of the market. Specifically, over this time our poll has given Clinton, on average, a 10-point lead, while that of the market has been narrower at 5-points. So why the difference? We analyzed a…

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The Unlikable Duo: Trump and Clinton

The present consensus among pundits is that Trump has lost serious momentum since shoring up the minimum number of delegates in early May. Is there any truth to this? The short answer is yes. Trump has lost steam since May. Indeed, after early gains in his favorability scores, they have been flat, hovering in the…

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Canadian Views on the North American Free Trade Agreement

On the eve of the Republican Convention and as Donald Trump (if elected President) is poised to renegotiate or break NAFTA, we asked Canadians how they feel about the agreement that has governed US/Canada/Mexico trade since 1994. Overall Canadians support NAFTA more than ever (now at 79% vs 64% in 2001).  Canadians are also more…

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Is Brexit a Reflection of What is to Come?

The Brexit vote appears to have caught some leaders and pundits off guard. But it shouldn’t have, especially given that trust in government/leadership worldwide has dropped 7 points since 2012. Furthermore, a majority of citizens worldwide believe their governments/leaders are in power for themselves, while only about four-in-ten believe that their governments/leaders are in touch,…

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It’s Nativism: Explaining the Drivers of Trump’s Popular Support

Introduction A year ago who would have believed it—Trump the presumptive nominee for the Republican party! For the longest time, most expected Trump would implode. But to the prognosticators chagrin this did not happen. I personally began to question my own assumptions about Trump during the summer of 2015. At that time, Trump was in…

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Little League Games: The New Happy Hour

As Jamie Foxx and T-Pain prophetically once told us all, “blame it on the alcohol”. This begs the question: what have we done? Well, the answer is: lots. Alcohol is now commonplace in many aspects of daily life, from the now-standard yet extensive Bloody Mary bars at brunch to the three martini lunches with Bob…

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Trump is a symptom of the decline of American institutions

Donald Trump (and to a lesser degree Bernie Sanders) are contemporary political phenomenon. The two outsider candidates — one having essentially won a major party nomination, the other still mounting a significant challenge– have enjoyed more success than any other “outsider” candidate in a generation. The question we hear more often than any is: how…

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Poll Modeling Says: No, Bernie Sanders Is Not More Electable

Bernie Sanders, facing a virtually insurmountable climb to win the Democratic nomination through pledged delegates, has turned to trying to convince superdelegates that he is more electable. Sanders is doing this by pointing at current polling which does indeed show him performing stronger against Donald Trump or the other Republicans than Hillary Clinton. As a pollster, I’d like to make sure folks understand that this “theory” is got more than a touch of wishful thinking in it.

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Mental Health on the Minds of Canadians

Mental health is becoming an increasing challenge as the proportion of Canadians who are classified as “High Risk” on Ipsos’ Mental Health Risk Index inches up over the last year — from 33% to 35%. Three-in-ten (29%) Canadians also report that their mental health has disrupted their lives in some way in the past year.…

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“Taking America Back”: Reasons and Meaning

Trump has forcefully pushed a strong “American Exceptionalism” rejuvenation narrative typified by his campaign slogan— “MAKE America Great Again!” Often Trump operationalizes this slogan in speeches as “we need to take America back” or some derivation thereof. To what degree do people agree with the message? And why? Republicans are much more likely than Democrats…

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