Articles Posted in Public Opinion


Likely voter models and projecting turnout

Returning to the Ipsos approach to likely voters, we have set up a method that allows us fine grained control over our model to match the actual turnout rates (here, here and here). Of course, the perceptive polling connoisseur would ask, “great you can match to turnout, how do you know what turnout is going…

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2016 Turnout Projection – May 2015 Edition

Now that we have a model allowing us to forecast turnout for upcoming U.S. elections (link), what does our data tell us about the 2016 contest? In our way-too-early projection, the Reuters/Ipsos poll data for May 2015 indicates that 2016 turnout will be about 50% of the voting age population. With almost 18 months until election…

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Incumbency is King! Political Fundamentals Put Dems and Clinton’s Odds at Only 30%

Polls, pundits and even bookmakers have already elected President Hillary Clinton. However, at this point in the Game of Oval Office Thrones, models are better oracles than polls – and the models do not like her odds.

Hillary a Slam Dunk, Right?

We are still twenty months out from the US presidential election and ten months from the first primary, but the electoral season is in full swing. Already many pundits are speculating about who will and will not take the White House in November of 2016. At the moment, Hillary Clinton is the consensus favorite. Most cite her polling numbers, popular appeal to women, and formidable war chest.

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Have Your Say on the IMHOIpsos Forum for Engaged Canadians

We ask Canadians all kinds of questions every day. Some questions are for our clients, others are for us. For the most part it’s a one way street – we ask, they answer – which is why this year we launched a new online discussion forum for two-way dialogue on important issues of the day.…

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People are talking (and posting) about customer service


ipsos-omnibus-customer-service

If you are one of the millions of Americans who’ve been ignored, stuck on hold, passed from person to person, lost in a chat room discussion, or simply unable to get one ounce of satisfaction from a customer experience gone wrong, you are certainly not on Gilligan’s Island by yourself. Chances are Skipper, Professor, the Movie Star, and Mary Ann, are right there with you.

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Perils of Perception

Join Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, as he discusses the results of Ipsos’ recent global survey, the Perils of Perception.

This 14 country study looks at how accurate – or inaccurate – people are when asked to estimate basic facts about their population or social issues.

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Why Bother with Likely Voters

The Ipsos approach to likely voters involves asking multiple questions, assigning each person a score based on their responses, and reporting on likely voters based on expected turnout… So what? Why do we go to all this trouble to build a sophisticated  (and expensive!) likely voter model? We do it because likely voter model construction…

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Formulating Likely Voters — Ipsos’ Approach

In the reporting of public opinion, there are few widely-discussed concepts that are as confusing or misunderstood as “likely voters”. Many poll observers think likely voters are a hard and fast classification with clear definitions; this could not be further from the truth. The reality is the construction of likely voter identification is extremely variable…

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2014 U.S. Elections Recap

Ipsos Public Affairs had a busy 2014 full of electoral research centered around the 2014 U.S. midterm election. In fact, we – in partnership with Thomson Reuters – likely have the most complete electoral research program in the United States today. This post is an overview of our work in 2014,  and the follow-up series…

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Canadians’ Views on Pension Plans

An aging work force, longer life expectancy, and declining birth rates are changing the retirement equation that Canadians might once have taken for granted. We asked Canadians how much they know about their pension or retirement plan as well as how they feel about their potential retirement income.

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