Articles Posted in Public Affairs


Forget the debate: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016

The following article by Clifford Young and Julia Clark originally appeared in Reuters: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/10/14/forget-what-you-saw-last-night-two-simple-reasons-a-republican-is-likely-to-win-in-2016/ Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways. Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican…

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The rise of Neo-Nativism: Putting Trump into Proper Context

by Cliff Young and Chris Jackson Many argue that Trump’s rise in the polls is nothing but a fluke (link, link, and link); that once the Republican voters come to their senses, a more credible candidate will emerge (link, link, and link).  These people may be right; horse race polls are ephemeral at best this…

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Election Poll Accuracy Over Time

Election polls especially suffer from two specific types of measurement error: (1) election salience among voters at the time of the poll and (2) strategic voting decisions at the time of the vote which are at odds with poll responses. On point one, the research literature shows that the farther a poll is out from…

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Happy it’s Back to School?

omnibus-im-happy-feed

Why do so many parents look like fans jumping out of their collective seats at an exciting sporting event, the day their kids head back to school?

Maybe it’s the release of the Kraken from its summer nest, or all the free time work-from-home-adults suddenly achieve, or the unabashed excitement parents feel towards the Matterhorn of homework about to be poured down their children’s throats!  Whatever the reason, school is back in session, and bus driver Bob is rumbling, bumbling, and stumbling down every back woods street across America delivering our most precious assets to and from their daily dose of academic enrichment.

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What an Actual Trump Voter Looks Like

This post, written by Cliff Young and Julia Clark, originally appeared in The Daily Beast.  We thought Trump was just a summer fling for the GOP, but it’s becoming increasingly more likely that some Republicans have met their match. Donald Trump has been a larger-than-life figure for almost a generation: businessman, entertainer, pageant purveyor, and…

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To Grill or Not to Grill

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To grill, or not to grill, that is the question my dear Ophelia? I know, I know wrong Shakespeare character.

In a recent Ipsos Public Affairs survey, Is Outdoor Cooking America’s Favorite Summer Pastime?, we explore America’s passion for grilling, spending time with friends, and enjoying a refreshing summer cocktail. It seems as if quite a bit of us escape the kitchen heat for the backyard grill. Eight in ten (81%) cook outside during the summer months, on average about six times per month, and almost 1 out of every 2 Americans (49%), feel cooking outside is the #1 best thing about preparing meals at home during the summer.

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American Partisan Support for U.S. Iran Policy

Foreign policy is traditionally a strength of the Republican Party. Americans often prefer Republican positions on international issues particularly in situations that involve conflict. However, part of the core rationale for Barack Obama’s candidacy in 2008 was his opposition to the war in Iraq. Can history repeat itself and can Obama’s nuanced approach to foreign…

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Education levels among U.S. Elected Officials Part Two

By Saide Ashaboglu Last post (link) we discussed how U.S. politicians’ education levels differed from the general population, which yielded an interesting comparison.  Fora second deep dive, we decided to look at differences between the Democratic and Republican parties. The politicians we looked at hold office as Representatives, Senators, and Governors. One question that intrigued…

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Values of Observational Research

Fundamentally, research is about answering questions.  Want to find out why are plants green? Do some research with a botanist. Want to know how gravity works? Do some research with a physicist. Want to know who won the 1977 World Series? Do some research with a historian.  But if we have a question about what…

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2016 Turnout Projection Update – June 2015

In recent posts I’ve outlined how we plan to use our Reuters/Ipsos survey data to forecast turnout for the 2016 presidential election and shown where we stand – with our way too early estimate – as of May 2015. In this post, I’d like to bring in some other proof points, expand our analysis a bit and update our turnout projections.

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