Articles Posted in Public Affairs


Ipsos Analysis of Donald Trump’s Climb to 1,237 Delegates

The notion of a contested convention for the Republican presidential nomination has gained traction over the last several weeks. A contested convention (also known as a brokered convention) would occur in the event that none of the Republican nominees were able to reach the 1,237 delegate threshold needed in order to clinch the nomination.

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Carson’s Departure Doesn’t Change Much (2016 Republican Primary)

Ben Carson ended his run for the 2016 Republican nomination on Friday, March 4 (link) after briefly surging in polling last fall but winning no primaries this year. His departure comes during repeated calls from the Republican Party leadership for the party to coalesce around a candidate (but Trump). Some hope that without Carson in the race, the ~10% of Republicans (link) still supporting him will move to support one of the establishment candidates like Marco Rubio. Our data indicates that is unlikely to happen.

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Why Donald Trump has a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination

New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Nevada: the evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. Those who doubt a Trump victory believe that Republican voters will at some point come to their senses, while others see a narrowing field as one that favors Trump’s competition. We have always been bullish on a Trump nomination. Indeed, in September, we gave Trump a 45 percent chance of being nominated. Today, less than a week before Super Tuesday, we give Trump a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican Party nomination based on the available evidence.

Here’s why.

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Impact of 2016 Primaries on Voter Enthusiasm

Our presidential primary system is a unique, complicated and dynamic system that seems to be engineered more for drama than actually selecting a leader. After each contest pundits and candidates battle over who has “momentum” in an effort to both frame the next chapter and fire up supporters. Electoral losses are referred to as “demoralizing losses”, while victories are going to “energize supporters”. Regular political news covers (in very minute detail) the poll gains and losses of the candidates. What is less well studied is how election fortunes affect the enthusiasm of candidates’ supporters. After a big win or tough loss, are people fired up? Or ready to give up?

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Canadians Say Country Heading in Wrong Direction

The honeymoon for the new federal Liberal government is likely coming to an end. In three short months, a majority of Canadians have gone from believing that the country is heading in the right direction to believing that we are now off on the wrong track. This is the widest disparity with negatives outweighing positives…

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Eight in Ten Rate Driving and Smoking Marijuana as being Extremely Unsafe

However, Driving while Texting and Driving While Taking “Selfies” Seen as Significantly More Dangerous Marijuana has long been a topic of debate and controversy in America, and despite the decriminalization and legalization of marijuana use in some states, many Americans continue to uphold certain views and attitudes as to the perceived dangers of marijuana use.…

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Going Viral – Zika Awareness up 20 percentage points since Jan 27th

On Monday, Feb 1, the World Health Organization declared a global health emergency due to the Zika virus – leading to the rare international crisis where Americans are paying attention. As a refresher, the Zika virus is spread through mosquito bites and since the first case was reported in Brazil last May, it has spread…

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Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Trumpism

In a few other posts [here and here], we poked at the idea that the theme driving Trump’s campaign, Make America Great Again, may be emotional nostalgia — for a time in America when the only barrier to success was one’s willingness to work for it, jobs were plentiful, and the stock market was booming — and…

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Trump and Nativism – Is There a Connection?

Day after day, we continue to see the news splattered with headlines in reference to Trump’s lead in the GOP polls – and many wonder why. In September, we decided to dig a bit deeper into the core driver of Trump’s campaign – Make America Great Again. Unsurprisingly, our poll found nativist sentiment is stronger…

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To Drive-Thru, or Not Drive-Thru?

To drive-thru, or not drive-thru, that is certainly the question!

ipsos-pa-drivethrough-home

While credit for the first drive-thru business in the US goes to The Grand National Bank in St. Louis, Missouri, in 1930, Sheldon, “Red” Chaney, operator of Red’s Giant Hamburger in Springfield, Missouri, on famous Route 66, is credited with opening the first successful restaurant operated drive-thru in 1947.  Don’t ask me how the drive-thru phenomenon occurred in the Show Me state not once, but twice.  I thought Missourians were skeptics, and would want to see it, touch it, taste it, before driving off into the Midwest sunset.  Guess not.

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