Articles Posted in Public Affairs


“Taking America Back”: Reasons and Meaning

Trump has forcefully pushed a strong “American Exceptionalism” rejuvenation narrative typified by his campaign slogan— “MAKE America Great Again!” Often Trump operationalizes this slogan in speeches as “we need to take America back” or some derivation thereof. To what degree do people agree with the message? And why? Republicans are much more likely than Democrats…

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Trump’s “America First” in Historical Context: Historical Resonance of Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric

Trump has been winning on his “Make America Great Again” appeal. His message has a strong “American-First” and “Nativist” undertone which resonates. How has this rhetoric played out over time? Is it on the rise in the US? Simple answer is no; it is not on the rise. Indeed, it is quite stable over the…

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Social Media May Not Be the Democratic Force We Thought It Was

On Federal Election Day, 2015, over 770,000 Tweets were sent out into the Twittersphere in Canada, but new data shows that the high volume of social media posts may not be reaching a new audience. Despite the early promise and the increased use of social media to discuss politics and policy issues, fewer Canadians have…

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Trump’s “America First” in Global Context: Global Resonance of Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric

Trump has been winning on his “Make America Great” appeal His message has a strong “American-First” and “Anti-Immigrant” undertone which resonates with the Republican base. How does this rhetoric play out in global context? A strong plurality of global citizens (41%) believes that immigrants take jobs away from their countrymen. Additionally, a near majority of…

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Republicans seen as stronger on Terrorism: Impact of Brussels-like events on US politics

Electorally speaking, terrorist attacks like the one in Brussels are more likely to benefit Republicans than Democrats. Republicans historically have been seen as more credible on “terrorism” and “foreign policy”. The March 2016 Ipsos/Reuters poll puts Republicans at a 7-point advantage on “the war on terror”. Typically, after an attack, public concern about terrorism spikes…

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Turnout and the D-R “Enthusiasm Gap”

My working hypothesis is that “swing voters” are mostly a myth created by pollsters (SORRY) and the media. The idea that there is some large swath of the population who, despite our nation’s immensely partisan tendencies, are compelled to fairly regularly change the party the vote for between D and R from election to election seems too fantastical. Party identity in the US is deeply rooted in values and identity, and not fleeting fancy. Of course we know there are some genuine swing voters out there, but not – in my view – in the numbers popularly conceived.

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Why Politicians Should Be Paying Attention to What Canadians say Online

Consulting with citizens on government plans, priorities and programs is no doubt necessary and a great way to ensure that Canadians are involved in government decision making. It has risen to prominence over the last few decades while at the same time Canadians have become more demanding of transparency and accountability for public sector actions…

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Ipsos Analysis of Donald Trump’s Climb to 1,237 Delegates

The notion of a contested convention for the Republican presidential nomination has gained traction over the last several weeks. A contested convention (also known as a brokered convention) would occur in the event that none of the Republican nominees were able to reach the 1,237 delegate threshold needed in order to clinch the nomination.

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Carson’s Departure Doesn’t Change Much (2016 Republican Primary)

Ben Carson ended his run for the 2016 Republican nomination on Friday, March 4 (link) after briefly surging in polling last fall but winning no primaries this year. His departure comes during repeated calls from the Republican Party leadership for the party to coalesce around a candidate (but Trump). Some hope that without Carson in the race, the ~10% of Republicans (link) still supporting him will move to support one of the establishment candidates like Marco Rubio. Our data indicates that is unlikely to happen.

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Why Donald Trump has a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination

New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Nevada: the evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. Those who doubt a Trump victory believe that Republican voters will at some point come to their senses, while others see a narrowing field as one that favors Trump’s competition. We have always been bullish on a Trump nomination. Indeed, in September, we gave Trump a 45 percent chance of being nominated. Today, less than a week before Super Tuesday, we give Trump a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican Party nomination based on the available evidence.

Here’s why.

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