Articles Posted in Public Affairs


Teacher, who’s Wally Street and why did he steal my parents’ money when he crashed?

Before joining the world of market research, I was a financial advisor and ran my own office for a large financial services firm. In order to prepare me for this, I had to undertake an intense training program, where I learned about bears, bulls, calls, puts, dividends, diversifying portfolios, balanced mutual funds, and the list…

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Trump is a symptom of the decline of American institutions

Donald Trump (and to a lesser degree Bernie Sanders) are contemporary political phenomenon. The two outsider candidates — one having essentially won a major party nomination, the other still mounting a significant challenge– have enjoyed more success than any other “outsider” candidate in a generation. The question we hear more often than any is: how…

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Poll Modeling Says: No, Bernie Sanders Is Not More Electable

Bernie Sanders, facing a virtually insurmountable climb to win the Democratic nomination through pledged delegates, has turned to trying to convince superdelegates that he is more electable. Sanders is doing this by pointing at current polling which does indeed show him performing stronger against Donald Trump or the other Republicans than Hillary Clinton. As a pollster, I’d like to make sure folks understand that this “theory” is got more than a touch of wishful thinking in it.

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Mental Health on the Minds of Canadians

Mental health is becoming an increasing challenge as the proportion of Canadians who are classified as “High Risk” on Ipsos’ Mental Health Risk Index inches up over the last year — from 33% to 35%. Three-in-ten (29%) Canadians also report that their mental health has disrupted their lives in some way in the past year.…

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Social Media May Not Be the Democratic Force We Thought It Was

On Federal Election Day, 2015, over 770,000 Tweets were sent out into the Twittersphere in Canada, but new data shows that the high volume of social media posts may not be reaching a new audience. Despite the early promise and the increased use of social media to discuss politics and policy issues, fewer Canadians have…

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Turnout and the D-R “Enthusiasm Gap”

My working hypothesis is that “swing voters” are mostly a myth created by pollsters (SORRY) and the media. The idea that there is some large swath of the population who, despite our nation’s immensely partisan tendencies, are compelled to fairly regularly change the party the vote for between D and R from election to election seems too fantastical. Party identity in the US is deeply rooted in values and identity, and not fleeting fancy. Of course we know there are some genuine swing voters out there, but not – in my view – in the numbers popularly conceived.

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Why Politicians Should Be Paying Attention to What Canadians say Online

Consulting with citizens on government plans, priorities and programs is no doubt necessary and a great way to ensure that Canadians are involved in government decision making. It has risen to prominence over the last few decades while at the same time Canadians have become more demanding of transparency and accountability for public sector actions…

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Ipsos Analysis of Donald Trump’s Climb to 1,237 Delegates

The notion of a contested convention for the Republican presidential nomination has gained traction over the last several weeks. A contested convention (also known as a brokered convention) would occur in the event that none of the Republican nominees were able to reach the 1,237 delegate threshold needed in order to clinch the nomination.

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Carson’s Departure Doesn’t Change Much (2016 Republican Primary)

Ben Carson ended his run for the 2016 Republican nomination on Friday, March 4 (link) after briefly surging in polling last fall but winning no primaries this year. His departure comes during repeated calls from the Republican Party leadership for the party to coalesce around a candidate (but Trump). Some hope that without Carson in the race, the ~10% of Republicans (link) still supporting him will move to support one of the establishment candidates like Marco Rubio. Our data indicates that is unlikely to happen.

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Why Donald Trump has a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination

New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Nevada: the evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. Those who doubt a Trump victory believe that Republican voters will at some point come to their senses, while others see a narrowing field as one that favors Trump’s competition. We have always been bullish on a Trump nomination. Indeed, in September, we gave Trump a 45 percent chance of being nominated. Today, less than a week before Super Tuesday, we give Trump a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican Party nomination based on the available evidence.

Here’s why.

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