Articles Posted in Polls


Why Bother with Likely Voters

The Ipsos approach to likely voters involves asking multiple questions, assigning each person a score based on their responses, and reporting on likely voters based on expected turnout… So what? Why do we go to all this trouble to build a sophisticated  (and expensive!) likely voter model? We do it because likely voter model construction…

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Formulating Likely Voters — Ipsos’ Approach

In the reporting of public opinion, there are few widely-discussed concepts that are as confusing or misunderstood as “likely voters”. Many poll observers think likely voters are a hard and fast classification with clear definitions; this could not be further from the truth. The reality is the construction of likely voter identification is extremely variable…

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2014 U.S. Elections Recap

Ipsos Public Affairs had a busy 2014 full of electoral research centered around the 2014 U.S. midterm election. In fact, we – in partnership with Thomson Reuters – likely have the most complete electoral research program in the United States today. This post is an overview of our work in 2014,  and the follow-up series…

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Trudeau’s Liberals Gain Momentum: Are Canadians Ready for Change?

Since the 2011 federal election Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have gained in intended vote from 19% to 38% and now lead Stephen Harper’s Conservatives (31%) by 7 points.

Trudeau’s 19 point gain comes from both the Conservatives (down 9 points) and the NDP (24%) down 7 points since the 2011 election.

If the magic number for a majority is 40% the Liberals under Trudeau are in striking distance but does the Liberal rise represent a shift in Canadian’s expectations of government? Do we want the Liberals back in power because we have come to the realization that there is value in government? Do we believe that the problems we face, be they, declining health services, income inequality, global warming or an economy that is slow to create jobs across the country will be solved by a more active government? Or are we merely tired of the old and looking for a new style of leader and government?

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Likely Voters – You Have a Right to Know

In the latest “You Have a Right to Know” webisode, Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, looks at political polling including the differences between gen pop, eligible, likely, and true voters, methods of dealing with non-voters, and the pros and cons of various models used in political polling. The “You Have a Right to Know” series is designed for journalists and informed citizens who have an interest in better understanding how public polls are conducted and presented, as well as how they can evaluate poll integrity and quality.

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Big Data – You Have a Right to Know

In this video of Darrell Bricker’s popular ‘You Have a Right to Know’ series, Ipsos Public Affairs’ Global CEO shares his insights on Big Data, including why it’s important, and what you need to be aware of from a methodological standpoint.

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Infographic: Week Two of Ontario Election on Twitter (May 10-16)

Ontarians continue to talk politics on Twitter with the bulk of the conversations surrounding the Conservatives. The Tories are dominating the discussion with 62% of the mentions, while the Liberals (25%) and the NDP (12%) trail in the debate. While the share of weekly buzz may be in the Conservatives favour, the sentiment toward the PCs remained largely negative (59% negative, 8% positive and 33% neutral).

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Canadian Ethnic Group Use of the Internet and Twitter for Public Discourse

Some Canadians are riding the digital wave, while others are lagging behind as the internet and social media expand the number of ways people can express themselves, communicate and find information. We rolled up 20,000+ online interviews conducted in 2013 to identify which Canadian subgroups are using the internet and Twitter for social and political discourse.

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Observations on Healthcare Exchange Enrollment pt.2

With yesterday’s end (1) of the open enrollment period of the Affordable Care Act healthcare exchanges, I thought it might be time to revisit some of the data we’ve collected on the enrollees. One of the most frequently asked questions about the exchanges is “will uninsured and underinsured Americans sign up?” Before the exchanges launched, the…

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Observations on Healthcare Exchange Enrollment

The biggest question that has surrounded the launch of the Affordable Care Act healthcare exchanges is whether they could attract enough “young invincibles” to make the enterprise financially sustainable. Or, would “adverse selection”  saddle the system with older, sicker customers whose healthcare costs would eventually drive the exchanges out of business? The Obama administration’s release…

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