Articles Posted in Politics


Energizing the Base: Trump’s Immigration Policy and Its Effect

Over the last week or so the polls have narrowed: where Clinton had an 8-point lead over Trump, they are now in a near dead heat. The question, of course, is why?  The reasons, in my mind, are diverse yet interrelated. First, part of this narrowing is the natural regression to the mean which we…

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Does Clinton’s 8-Point Lead Look Softer Than at First Blush? Clinton v. Trump on Policy & Personal Quality Matchups

Only 83 days until Election Day! It has been a rough couple of weeks for Trump and a correspondingly good few for Clinton.  She leads Trump by an average of about 8 points, looking across all the polls. As we head into this final stretch, key qualities—both policy positions and personal attributes—will come into greater…

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Why Likely Voters

A few weeks ago, the Reuters/Ipsos poll, along with other pollsters, began reporting on likely voters in addition to registered voters. In past years, we would make this change and go about our day with little comment, but as polling is increasingly scrutinized, and given Ipsos’ total commitment to transparency, we think it’s important to…

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Third Parties and Their Effect: Talking Points for the Diane Rehm Show

Party Identification Long-term decline in identification with either party: Democrats and Republicans Increase in identification as Independent 2016 seems to have frayed these party bonds even more: especially for Republicans But not yet sure if this is just short-term, or a long-term trend Third Parties in Global Context There is more experience with the effect…

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The Rationale Behind the Redesign of the Reuters/Ipsos Presidential Ballot Question

Since early June, our Reuters/Ipsos horse race ballot question (Clinton versus Trump) has shown a larger spread (Clinton-Trump) than the average of the market. Specifically, over this time our poll has given Clinton, on average, a 10-point lead, while that of the market has been narrower at 5-points. So why the difference? We analyzed a…

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The Unlikable Duo: Trump and Clinton

The present consensus among pundits is that Trump has lost serious momentum since shoring up the minimum number of delegates in early May. Is there any truth to this? The short answer is yes. Trump has lost steam since May. Indeed, after early gains in his favorability scores, they have been flat, hovering in the…

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Is Brexit a Reflection of What is to Come?

The Brexit vote appears to have caught some leaders and pundits off guard. But it shouldn’t have, especially given that trust in government/leadership worldwide has dropped 7 points since 2012. Furthermore, a majority of citizens worldwide believe their governments/leaders are in power for themselves, while only about four-in-ten believe that their governments/leaders are in touch,…

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It’s Nativism: Explaining the Drivers of Trump’s Popular Support

Introduction A year ago who would have believed it—Trump the presumptive nominee for the Republican party! For the longest time, most expected Trump would implode. But to the prognosticators chagrin this did not happen. I personally began to question my own assumptions about Trump during the summer of 2015. At that time, Trump was in…

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Trump is a symptom of the decline of American institutions

Donald Trump (and to a lesser degree Bernie Sanders) are contemporary political phenomenon. The two outsider candidates — one having essentially won a major party nomination, the other still mounting a significant challenge– have enjoyed more success than any other “outsider” candidate in a generation. The question we hear more often than any is: how…

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Poll Modeling Says: No, Bernie Sanders Is Not More Electable

Bernie Sanders, facing a virtually insurmountable climb to win the Democratic nomination through pledged delegates, has turned to trying to convince superdelegates that he is more electable. Sanders is doing this by pointing at current polling which does indeed show him performing stronger against Donald Trump or the other Republicans than Hillary Clinton. As a pollster, I’d like to make sure folks understand that this “theory” is got more than a touch of wishful thinking in it.

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