Articles Posted in Politics


Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Trumpism

In a few other posts [here and here], we poked at the idea that the theme driving Trump’s campaign, Make America Great Again, may be emotional nostalgia — for a time in America when the only barrier to success was one’s willingness to work for it, jobs were plentiful, and the stock market was booming — and…

Read More...

Trump and Nativism – Is There a Connection?

Day after day, we continue to see the news splattered with headlines in reference to Trump’s lead in the GOP polls – and many wonder why. In September, we decided to dig a bit deeper into the core driver of Trump’s campaign – Make America Great Again. Unsurprisingly, our poll found nativist sentiment is stronger…

Read More...

Public Reputations of 2016 Presidential Candidates

When discussing contemporary politics, one of the most common questions I get asked is, “what do people see in (Candidate)? I don’t understand how anyone can think he/she would be a good president.” This is usually expressed in an incredulous tone suggesting the speaker is talking about the opposition party. I particularly get this question…

Read More...

Forget the debate: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016

The following article by Clifford Young and Julia Clark originally appeared in Reuters: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/10/14/forget-what-you-saw-last-night-two-simple-reasons-a-republican-is-likely-to-win-in-2016/ Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways. Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican…

Read More...

The rise of Neo-Nativism: Putting Trump into Proper Context

by Cliff Young and Chris Jackson Many argue that Trump’s rise in the polls is nothing but a fluke (link, link, and link); that once the Republican voters come to their senses, a more credible candidate will emerge (link, link, and link).  These people may be right; horse race polls are ephemeral at best this…

Read More...

Election Poll Accuracy Over Time

Election polls especially suffer from two specific types of measurement error: (1) election salience among voters at the time of the poll and (2) strategic voting decisions at the time of the vote which are at odds with poll responses. On point one, the research literature shows that the farther a poll is out from…

Read More...

American Partisan Support for U.S. Iran Policy

Foreign policy is traditionally a strength of the Republican Party. Americans often prefer Republican positions on international issues particularly in situations that involve conflict. However, part of the core rationale for Barack Obama’s candidacy in 2008 was his opposition to the war in Iraq. Can history repeat itself and can Obama’s nuanced approach to foreign…

Read More...

Education levels among U.S. Elected Officials Part Two

By Saide Ashaboglu Last post (link) we discussed how U.S. politicians’ education levels differed from the general population, which yielded an interesting comparison.  Fora second deep dive, we decided to look at differences between the Democratic and Republican parties. The politicians we looked at hold office as Representatives, Senators, and Governors. One question that intrigued…

Read More...

2016 Turnout Projection Update – June 2015

In recent posts I’ve outlined how we plan to use our Reuters/Ipsos survey data to forecast turnout for the 2016 presidential election and shown where we stand – with our way too early estimate – as of May 2015. In this post, I’d like to bring in some other proof points, expand our analysis a bit and update our turnout projections.

Read More...

Likely voter models and projecting turnout

Returning to the Ipsos approach to likely voters, we have set up a method that allows us fine grained control over our model to match the actual turnout rates (here, here and here). Of course, the perceptive polling connoisseur would ask, “great you can match to turnout, how do you know what turnout is going…

Read More...
Page 1 of 4123...Last »