Ipsos Public Affairs had a busy 2014 full of electoral research centered around the 2014 U.S. midterm election. In fact, we – in partnership with Thomson Reuters – likely have the most complete electoral research program in the United States … Read More…
Articles Posted in Politics
Since the 2011 federal election Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have gained in intended vote from 19% to 38% and now lead Stephen Harper’s Conservatives (31%) by 7 points.
Trudeau’s 19 point gain comes from both the Conservatives (down 9 points) and the NDP (24%) down 7 points since the 2011 election.
If the magic number for a majority is 40% the Liberals under Trudeau are in striking distance but does the Liberal rise represent a shift in Canadian’s expectations of government? Do we want the Liberals back in power because we have come to the realization that there is value in government? Do we believe that the problems we face, be they, declining health services, income inequality, global warming or an economy that is slow to create jobs across the country will be solved by a more active government? Or are we merely tired of the old and looking for a new style of leader and government?
In the latest “You Have a Right to Know” webisode, Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, looks at political polling including the differences between gen pop, eligible, likely, and true voters, methods of dealing with non-voters, and the pros and cons of various models used in political polling. The “You Have a Right to Know” series is designed for journalists and informed citizens who have an interest in better understanding how public polls are conducted and presented, as well as how they can evaluate poll integrity and quality.
With the Ontario election campaign underway, Ontarians wasted little time turning to Twitter to discuss the parties and their platforms. The social media debate included 37% of Ontarians talking policy and politics online.
The Liberals (39%) and the Tories (38%) shared the most buzz, while the NDP (23%) trailed behind in the number of mentions.