Articles Posted in News


Mental Health on the Minds of Canadians

Mental health is becoming an increasing challenge as the proportion of Canadians who are classified as “High Risk” on Ipsos’ Mental Health Risk Index inches up over the last year — from 33% to 35%. Three-in-ten (29%) Canadians also report that their mental health has disrupted their lives in some way in the past year.…

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TOMAmeter March 2016 – March is Netflix’s Month

Late February and March brought a whole lot of new programming, and as a result, several new programs from Netflix entered the TOMAmeter for the month of March. Among the big movers and shakers, we see that Fuller House, which debuted on February 26, as well as House of Cards, which debuted its fourth season…

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Turnout and the D-R “Enthusiasm Gap”

My working hypothesis is that “swing voters” are mostly a myth created by pollsters (SORRY) and the media. The idea that there is some large swath of the population who, despite our nation’s immensely partisan tendencies, are compelled to fairly regularly change the party the vote for between D and R from election to election seems too fantastical. Party identity in the US is deeply rooted in values and identity, and not fleeting fancy. Of course we know there are some genuine swing voters out there, but not – in my view – in the numbers popularly conceived.

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Why Politicians Should Be Paying Attention to What Canadians say Online

Consulting with citizens on government plans, priorities and programs is no doubt necessary and a great way to ensure that Canadians are involved in government decision making. It has risen to prominence over the last few decades while at the same time Canadians have become more demanding of transparency and accountability for public sector actions…

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Ipsos Analysis of Donald Trump’s Climb to 1,237 Delegates

The notion of a contested convention for the Republican presidential nomination has gained traction over the last several weeks. A contested convention (also known as a brokered convention) would occur in the event that none of the Republican nominees were able to reach the 1,237 delegate threshold needed in order to clinch the nomination.

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TOMAmeter February 2016 – Awards Season Dominates

  February brought along with it an eventful awards season, with the Oscars on ABC and the Grammys on CBS among the top television programs for the month, at #7 and #8 in the TOMAmeter respectively. Also near the top of the rankings was coverage of Super Bowl 50 between the Carolina Panthers and Denver…

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Carson’s Departure Doesn’t Change Much (2016 Republican Primary)

Ben Carson ended his run for the 2016 Republican nomination on Friday, March 4 (link) after briefly surging in polling last fall but winning no primaries this year. His departure comes during repeated calls from the Republican Party leadership for the party to coalesce around a candidate (but Trump). Some hope that without Carson in the race, the ~10% of Republicans (link) still supporting him will move to support one of the establishment candidates like Marco Rubio. Our data indicates that is unlikely to happen.

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Super Tuesday States Poll: Clinton and Trump poised for victories

With Super Tuesday tonight, the battle between the establishment and anti-establishment of the Republican and Democratic contests are coming to a head. On the Republican side, Donald Trump holds a strong position. Can Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio come up with some (surprise) wins to delay Trump’s increasingly likely victory? On the Democratic side, Hillary…

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Why Donald Trump has a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination

New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Nevada: the evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. Those who doubt a Trump victory believe that Republican voters will at some point come to their senses, while others see a narrowing field as one that favors Trump’s competition. We have always been bullish on a Trump nomination. Indeed, in September, we gave Trump a 45 percent chance of being nominated. Today, less than a week before Super Tuesday, we give Trump a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican Party nomination based on the available evidence.

Here’s why.

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Impact of 2016 Primaries on Voter Enthusiasm

Our presidential primary system is a unique, complicated and dynamic system that seems to be engineered more for drama than actually selecting a leader. After each contest pundits and candidates battle over who has “momentum” in an effort to both frame the next chapter and fire up supporters. Electoral losses are referred to as “demoralizing losses”, while victories are going to “energize supporters”. Regular political news covers (in very minute detail) the poll gains and losses of the candidates. What is less well studied is how election fortunes affect the enthusiasm of candidates’ supporters. After a big win or tough loss, are people fired up? Or ready to give up?

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