Articles Posted in Media

The rise of Neo-Nativism: Putting Trump into Proper Context

by Cliff Young and Chris Jackson Many argue that Trump’s rise in the polls is nothing but a fluke (link, link, and link); that once the Republican voters come to their senses, a more credible candidate will emerge (link, link, and link).  These people may be right; horse race polls are ephemeral at best this…

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Election Poll Accuracy Over Time

Election polls especially suffer from two specific types of measurement error: (1) election salience among voters at the time of the poll and (2) strategic voting decisions at the time of the vote which are at odds with poll responses. On point one, the research literature shows that the farther a poll is out from…

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American Partisan Support for U.S. Iran Policy

Foreign policy is traditionally a strength of the Republican Party. Americans often prefer Republican positions on international issues particularly in situations that involve conflict. However, part of the core rationale for Barack Obama’s candidacy in 2008 was his opposition to the war in Iraq. Can history repeat itself and can Obama’s nuanced approach to foreign…

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2016 Turnout Projection Update – June 2015

In recent posts I’ve outlined how we plan to use our Reuters/Ipsos survey data to forecast turnout for the 2016 presidential election and shown where we stand – with our way too early estimate – as of May 2015. In this post, I’d like to bring in some other proof points, expand our analysis a bit and update our turnout projections.

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Likely voter models and projecting turnout

Returning to the Ipsos approach to likely voters, we have set up a method that allows us fine grained control over our model to match the actual turnout rates (here, here and here). Of course, the perceptive polling connoisseur would ask, “great you can match to turnout, how do you know what turnout is going…

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2016 Turnout Projection – May 2015 Edition

Now that we have a model allowing us to forecast turnout for upcoming U.S. elections (link), what does our data tell us about the 2016 contest? In our way-too-early projection, the Reuters/Ipsos poll data for May 2015 indicates that 2016 turnout will be about 50% of the voting age population. With almost 18 months until election…

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TOMAmeter March 9 – 15: Big Week for The Blacklist

NBC’s The Blacklist made an impressive jump of five places in our rankings this week and is now the 5th most mentioned program. After a brief slip last week, The Blacklist is now back in familiar territory at #5. With the exception of last week, The Blacklist has remained high on our list since its episode following the Super Bowl back in the beginning of February.

Word Cloud March 17

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TOMAmeter March 2 – 8: FOX Continues to Build an Empire

After a six week absence, FOX’s Empire has returned to #2, coming in just behind AMC’s The Walking Dead. Empire has been growing every week as it builds toward it season finale, so look for the popular drama to remain at the top of the rankings as we head into spring.

March 8 word cloud

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TOMAmeter February 23 – March 1: Frank Underwood Returns to the TOMAmeter

A popular streaming service drama returned to Netflix last week and binge watcher or not, mentions of House of Cards proved to be strong. The program debuts at #10 this week which is an improvement on last season’s premiere when it placed at #18.

Word cloud February 23

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TOMAmeter February 16 – 22: And The Winner Is ….

AMC’s The Walking Dead has been the favorite heading into this week, but ABC’s telecast of The Oscars/Academy Awards made quite the splash in our rankings this week. The Oscars/Academy Awards went from outside the Top 20 last week to #4 this week, which matched its performance from last year.

February 22 cloud

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