Articles Posted in Elections


Consumer Confidence and the Election

As Cliff pointed out in his earlier post Barack Obama’s chances for reelection are more reliant on the sentiment of the American Public (desire for change vs desire for continuity) than the tactics of the campaign. In upcoming posts, Cliff will further detail how he calculates the desire for change typology. Today I wanted to share some quick data on a single component, the economy and consumer confidence.

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Spring Cleaning: Ipsos Polling in the Ohio and Florida Republican Primaries

I wanted to share note on some polling which predates this blog.  Ipsos, together with its media partner Thomson Reuters, conducted online polls in both the Florida and Ohio Republican primaries.  In these states, we conducted multi-wave rolling samples that went up to the day before the election.

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What is Obama’s Headache in 2013? A Republican Controlled Congress

As I discussed in my previous post (Much Ado About Nothing), excluding some random event or intervention from a higher power, Obama will be the president in 2013.  This, of course, begs the next question: Will Obama be able to govern, or should he expect four years of political gridlock?

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Much ado about nothing: Obama will be president, again, in 2013

Many of us have watched transfixed as the Republican Party participates in a ‘no holds barred’ fratricide primary season. The heir apparent—Mitt Romney—is a weak front runner, at best, but has taken shots from all the conservative pretenders that have tried to supplant him—first Bachmann, then Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and finally Santorum. However, the smart money remains on Romney to take the nomination because he leads in all the important leading indicators: money, delegates, electability, perceived leadership ability, etc. Intrade, that handy barometer of conventional wisdom, has Romney’s chances of winning at 93%.

Ultimately though, does any of this drama really matter? Will it really affect the outcome of the election in November?

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