Articles Posted in Elections


American Partisan Support for U.S. Iran Policy

Foreign policy is traditionally a strength of the Republican Party. Americans often prefer Republican positions on international issues particularly in situations that involve conflict. However, part of the core rationale for Barack Obama’s candidacy in 2008 was his opposition to the war in Iraq. Can history repeat itself and can Obama’s nuanced approach to foreign…

Read More...

Education levels among U.S. Elected Officials Part Two

By Saide Ashaboglu Last post (link) we discussed how U.S. politicians’ education levels differed from the general population, which yielded an interesting comparison.  Fora second deep dive, we decided to look at differences between the Democratic and Republican parties. The politicians we looked at hold office as Representatives, Senators, and Governors. One question that intrigued…

Read More...

2016 Turnout Projection Update – June 2015

In recent posts I’ve outlined how we plan to use our Reuters/Ipsos survey data to forecast turnout for the 2016 presidential election and shown where we stand – with our way too early estimate – as of May 2015. In this post, I’d like to bring in some other proof points, expand our analysis a bit and update our turnout projections.

Read More...

Likely voter models and projecting turnout

Returning to the Ipsos approach to likely voters, we have set up a method that allows us fine grained control over our model to match the actual turnout rates (here, here and here). Of course, the perceptive polling connoisseur would ask, “great you can match to turnout, how do you know what turnout is going…

Read More...

2016 Turnout Projection – May 2015 Edition

Now that we have a model allowing us to forecast turnout for upcoming U.S. elections (link), what does our data tell us about the 2016 contest? In our way-too-early projection, the Reuters/Ipsos poll data for May 2015 indicates that 2016 turnout will be about 50% of the voting age population. With almost 18 months until election…

Read More...

Incumbency is King! Political Fundamentals Put Dems and Clinton’s Odds at Only 30%

Polls, pundits and even bookmakers have already elected President Hillary Clinton. However, at this point in the Game of Oval Office Thrones, models are better oracles than polls – and the models do not like her odds.

Hillary a Slam Dunk, Right?

We are still twenty months out from the US presidential election and ten months from the first primary, but the electoral season is in full swing. Already many pundits are speculating about who will and will not take the White House in November of 2016. At the moment, Hillary Clinton is the consensus favorite. Most cite her polling numbers, popular appeal to women, and formidable war chest.

Read More...

Why Bother with Likely Voters

The Ipsos approach to likely voters involves asking multiple questions, assigning each person a score based on their responses, and reporting on likely voters based on expected turnout… So what? Why do we go to all this trouble to build a sophisticated  (and expensive!) likely voter model? We do it because likely voter model construction…

Read More...

Formulating Likely Voters — Ipsos’ Approach

In the reporting of public opinion, there are few widely-discussed concepts that are as confusing or misunderstood as “likely voters”. Many poll observers think likely voters are a hard and fast classification with clear definitions; this could not be further from the truth. The reality is the construction of likely voter identification is extremely variable…

Read More...

2014 U.S. Elections Recap

Ipsos Public Affairs had a busy 2014 full of electoral research centered around the 2014 U.S. midterm election. In fact, we – in partnership with Thomson Reuters – likely have the most complete electoral research program in the United States today. This post is an overview of our work in 2014,  and the follow-up series…

Read More...

Likely Voters – You Have a Right to Know

In the latest “You Have a Right to Know” webisode, Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, looks at political polling including the differences between gen pop, eligible, likely, and true voters, methods of dealing with non-voters, and the pros and cons of various models used in political polling. The “You Have a Right to Know” series is designed for journalists and informed citizens who have an interest in better understanding how public polls are conducted and presented, as well as how they can evaluate poll integrity and quality.

Read More…

Page 1 of 4123...Last »