Articles Posted in Elections


Public Opinion’s Agenda and Trump: Economic Growth, Healthcare, Immigration, and Infrastructure

The Trump administration will face a public agenda which is mostly domestic in focus.  The American public’s number one priority is jobs and the economy.  Terrorism as a concern comes in second and is especially important among Republicans. Immigration On immigration, a majority of Americans support Trump’s policy prescriptions as laid out in his Arizona…

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The Election Might Be Crazy, but the Polling Numbers Aren’t

It looks like this absurd and lurid presidential election will remain unpredictable until the end. Between the FBI’s on-again, off-again investigations of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s emails, the “you can do anything” comments from Republican rival Donald Trump—not to mention the unexpected injection of Anthony Weiner’s ongoing sexting habits—it’s hardly surprising that the polls seem…

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Polls aside, the U.S. presidential election is far from a blowout

Two weeks out from Election Day and it looks like the race for the White House is all but over.  However, if it looks like pollsters are increasingly on the wrong side of history (Colombia’s referendum, Brexit, the 2015 British election and the Scottish referendum) it could be because they need to triple and quadruple…

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Public Opinion & The Infrastructure Agenda

Shifting Paradigm Context The system is broken.  America is becoming increasingly polarized. Both parties use framing to push their problems. Why? There are increased immigration pressures with more non-white than white babies born in 2011. There is economic pressure on the middle class. 63% believe they are worse off than their parents.  Infrastructure & Public…

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No, You May Not “Unskew” My Polls: A Refresher

It seems that I need to re-up my 2012 post on “why having unequal numbers of Democrats and Republicans in polls is OK”. I was hoping after the massive failure of the “Unskewing Guy” in 2012 I wouldn’t have to revisit this, but it seems I’m wrong. If the amount of abusive emails and tweets…

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Ipsos/Diane Rehm Show Study of Millennials

The data from the Ipsos/NPR Study of Millennials was released today. For full analysis, please visit Ipsos News and Polls. Younger voters, or Millennials (ages 18-34), are distinct from their older counterparts on a number of dimensions, but strikingly similar on others. In particular, when it comes to differences, younger voters are: More progressive in…

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Energizing the Base: Trump’s Immigration Policy and Its Effect

Over the last week or so the polls have narrowed: where Clinton had an 8-point lead over Trump, they are now in a near dead heat. The question, of course, is why?  The reasons, in my mind, are diverse yet interrelated. First, part of this narrowing is the natural regression to the mean which we…

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Does Clinton’s 8-Point Lead Look Softer Than at First Blush? Clinton v. Trump on Policy & Personal Quality Matchups

Only 83 days until Election Day! It has been a rough couple of weeks for Trump and a correspondingly good few for Clinton.  She leads Trump by an average of about 8 points, looking across all the polls. As we head into this final stretch, key qualities—both policy positions and personal attributes—will come into greater…

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Why Likely Voters

A few weeks ago, the Reuters/Ipsos poll, along with other pollsters, began reporting on likely voters in addition to registered voters. In past years, we would make this change and go about our day with little comment, but as polling is increasingly scrutinized, and given Ipsos’ total commitment to transparency, we think it’s important to…

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Third Parties and Their Effect: Talking Points for the Diane Rehm Show

Party Identification Long-term decline in identification with either party: Democrats and Republicans Increase in identification as Independent 2016 seems to have frayed these party bonds even more: especially for Republicans But not yet sure if this is just short-term, or a long-term trend Third Parties in Global Context There is more experience with the effect…

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