In the latest “You Have a Right to Know” webisode, Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, looks at political polling including the differences between gen pop, eligible, likely, and true voters, methods of dealing with non-voters, and the pros and cons of various models used in political polling. The “You Have a Right to Know” series is designed for journalists and informed citizens who have an interest in better understanding how public polls are conducted and presented, as well as how they can evaluate poll integrity and quality.
Articles Posted in Elections
With the Ontario election campaign underway, Ontarians wasted little time turning to Twitter to discuss the parties and their platforms. The social media debate included 37% of Ontarians talking policy and politics online.
The Liberals (39%) and the Tories (38%) shared the most buzz, while the NDP (23%) trailed behind in the number of mentions.
With yesterday’s end (1) of the open enrollment period of the Affordable Care Act healthcare exchanges, I thought it might be time to revisit some of the data we’ve collected on the enrollees. One of the most frequently asked questions about … Read More…
The Brazilian presidential election is more than a year away. But already pundits and the odds-makers are assessing President Dilma’s chances of being reelected. For many, dark clouds are on her horizon. Why?
Some cite a very lethargic economy with inflation and unemployment ticking up. Others stress the recent widespread protests as a general sign of the public’s discontent with Dilma and the PT. Still others argue that the rise of the middle class has shifted voter priorities from the economy and jobs to quality of life issues like healthcare, crime, transportation, and education, with the Dilma government being ill-prepared to meet these new demands.
In 2010, Dilma Rouseff, Lula’s handpicked successor, won easily in the second round run-off election against Jose Serra, the opposition candidate (Dilma 56% of vote versus 44% Serra). At the time, many analysts thought Dilma would stumble—lacking both the charisma and political skills of her predecessor Lula and, as a result, would lean heavily on Lula’s skills and credibility. Contrary to this popular belief , Dilma has established herself as a strong leader, with little tolerance for corruption, and a strong streak of independence.
Today, Keynans will vote for a new president. The whole world is watching as well. Why? The last Kenyan presidential election in 2007 lead to widespread violence as supporters of Raila Odinga accused Mwai Kibaki and his supporters of stealing the election. Given that politics in Kenya is often strongly linked to tribal affiliation, much of the violence was directed by members of one tribe toward those of another. At its core, much of the violence found its origins in many long-standing economic grievances. Against this backdrop, the international community has kept a close eye on this election.
One constitutional change resulting from the violence in 2007 was that if no one candidate gets a majority of the votes, there will automatically be a second round run-off election between the top two vote getters within 30 days of the first round election-day.