Articles Posted in Elections

Likely Voters – You Have a Right to Know

In the latest “You Have a Right to Know” webisode, Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, looks at political polling including the differences between gen pop, eligible, likely, and true voters, methods of dealing with non-voters, and the pros and cons of various models used in political polling. The “You Have a Right to Know” series is designed for journalists and informed citizens who have an interest in better understanding how public polls are conducted and presented, as well as how they can evaluate poll integrity and quality.

Read More…

Infographic: Ontario Election on Twitter in Review

The Ontario election campaign is in the final stretch as voters’ line up to cast their ballots tomorrow on June 12th. Over the past five weeks, we have been monitoring and analyzing thousands of comments and conversations to see how the campaign unfolded on Twitter. Every week we shared an infographic featuring the volume of buzz, sentiment around the political parties and issues resonating with Twitter users.

This week our analysis summarizes the results to date and concludes the Twitter debate has been overwhelmingly negative. The infographic below highlights the share of voice each week, the peaks and valleys of conversations along the campaign trail, and more.

Read More…

Infographic: Week Four of Ontario Election on Twitter (May 24-30)

The Progressive Conservatives are still leading the conversation on Twitter with 43% (-1 from last week) of the mentions as election day on June 12th approaches. Meanwhile, buzz about the Liberals continues to grow with 38% (+4 from last week) of mentions this week and chatter about the NDP decreases to 19% (-3 from last week) of the mentions. All the parties and their leader’s faced criticism in the Twittersphere.

Read More…

Infographic: Week Three of Ontario Election on Twitter (May 17-23)

Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives continue to dominate the Ontario election discussion on Twitter with 44% of the mentions, although chatter about the Liberals (34%) and NDP (22%) has increased. Negativity surrounding proposed job cuts to the public sector continues to haunt the Tories in week three. The sentiment toward the PCs is overwhelmingly negative compared to the other parties.

Read More…

Infographic: Week Two of Ontario Election on Twitter (May 10-16)

Ontarians continue to talk politics on Twitter with the bulk of the conversations surrounding the Conservatives. The Tories are dominating the discussion with 62% of the mentions, while the Liberals (25%) and the NDP (12%) trail in the debate. While the share of weekly buzz may be in the Conservatives favour, the sentiment toward the PCs remained largely negative (59% negative, 8% positive and 33% neutral).

Read More…

Infographic: Week One of Ontario Election on Twitter (May 2-9)

With the Ontario election campaign underway, Ontarians wasted little time turning to Twitter to discuss the parties and their platforms. The social media debate included 37% of Ontarians talking policy and politics online.

The Liberals (39%) and the Tories (38%) shared the most buzz, while the NDP (23%) trailed behind in the number of mentions.

Read More…

Observations on Healthcare Exchange Enrollment pt.2

With yesterday’s end (1) of the open enrollment period of the Affordable Care Act healthcare exchanges, I thought it might be time to revisit some of the data we’ve collected on the enrollees. One of the most frequently asked questions about … Read More…

Incumbency is still King: Brazil’s Dilma is still the favorite in 2014, even after the protests.

The Brazilian presidential election is more than a year away. But already pundits and the odds-makers are assessing President Dilma’s chances of being reelected.  For many, dark clouds are on her horizon.  Why?

Some cite a very lethargic economy with inflation and unemployment ticking up.  Others stress the recent widespread protests as a general sign of the public’s discontent with Dilma and the PT.  Still others argue that the rise of the middle class has shifted voter priorities from the economy and jobs to quality of life issues like healthcare, crime, transportation, and education, with the Dilma government being ill-prepared to meet these new demands.

Read More…

Storm clouds on the Brazilian horizon? President Dilma’s poll numbers and her reelection chances

In 2010, Dilma Rouseff, Lula’s handpicked successor, won easily in the second round run-off election against Jose Serra, the opposition candidate (Dilma 56% of vote versus 44% Serra).  At the time, many analysts thought Dilma would stumble—lacking both the charisma and political skills of her predecessor Lula and, as a result, would lean heavily on Lula’s skills and credibility.  Contrary to this popular belief , Dilma has established herself as a strong leader, with little tolerance for corruption, and a strong streak of independence.

Read More…

Teetering on the edge: The 2013 Kenyan Presidential election

Today, Keynans will vote for a new president.  The whole world is watching as well.  Why?  The last Kenyan presidential election in 2007 lead to widespread violence as supporters of Raila Odinga accused Mwai Kibaki and his supporters of stealing the election. Given that politics in Kenya is often strongly linked to tribal affiliation, much of the violence was directed by members of one tribe toward those of another. At its core, much of the violence found its origins in many long-standing economic grievances. Against this backdrop, the international community has kept a close eye on this election.

One constitutional change resulting from the violence in 2007 was that if no one candidate gets a majority of the votes, there will automatically be a second round run-off election between the top two vote getters within 30 days of the first round election-day.

Read More…

Page 1 of 41234