Articles Posted in Elections


Likely voter models and projecting turnout

Returning to the Ipsos approach to likely voters, we have set up a method that allows us fine grained control over our model to match the actual turnout rates (here, here and here). Of course, the perceptive polling connoisseur would ask, “great you can match to turnout, how do you know what turnout is going…

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2016 Turnout Projection – May 2015 Edition

Now that we have a model allowing us to forecast turnout for upcoming U.S. elections (link), what does our data tell us about the 2016 contest? In our way-too-early projection, the Reuters/Ipsos poll data for May 2015 indicates that 2016 turnout will be about 50% of the voting age population. With almost 18 months until election…

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Incumbency is King! Political Fundamentals Put Dems and Clinton’s Odds at Only 30%

Polls, pundits and even bookmakers have already elected President Hillary Clinton. However, at this point in the Game of Oval Office Thrones, models are better oracles than polls – and the models do not like her odds.

Hillary a Slam Dunk, Right?

We are still twenty months out from the US presidential election and ten months from the first primary, but the electoral season is in full swing. Already many pundits are speculating about who will and will not take the White House in November of 2016. At the moment, Hillary Clinton is the consensus favorite. Most cite her polling numbers, popular appeal to women, and formidable war chest.

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Why Bother with Likely Voters

The Ipsos approach to likely voters involves asking multiple questions, assigning each person a score based on their responses, and reporting on likely voters based on expected turnout… So what? Why do we go to all this trouble to build a sophisticated  (and expensive!) likely voter model? We do it because likely voter model construction…

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Formulating Likely Voters — Ipsos’ Approach

In the reporting of public opinion, there are few widely-discussed concepts that are as confusing or misunderstood as “likely voters”. Many poll observers think likely voters are a hard and fast classification with clear definitions; this could not be further from the truth. The reality is the construction of likely voter identification is extremely variable…

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2014 U.S. Elections Recap

Ipsos Public Affairs had a busy 2014 full of electoral research centered around the 2014 U.S. midterm election. In fact, we – in partnership with Thomson Reuters – likely have the most complete electoral research program in the United States today. This post is an overview of our work in 2014,  and the follow-up series…

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Likely Voters – You Have a Right to Know

In the latest “You Have a Right to Know” webisode, Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, looks at political polling including the differences between gen pop, eligible, likely, and true voters, methods of dealing with non-voters, and the pros and cons of various models used in political polling. The “You Have a Right to Know” series is designed for journalists and informed citizens who have an interest in better understanding how public polls are conducted and presented, as well as how they can evaluate poll integrity and quality.

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Infographic: Ontario Election on Twitter in Review

The Ontario election campaign is in the final stretch as voters’ line up to cast their ballots tomorrow on June 12th. Over the past five weeks, we have been monitoring and analyzing thousands of comments and conversations to see how the campaign unfolded on Twitter. Every week we shared an infographic featuring the volume of buzz, sentiment around the political parties and issues resonating with Twitter users.

This week our analysis summarizes the results to date and concludes the Twitter debate has been overwhelmingly negative. The infographic below highlights the share of voice each week, the peaks and valleys of conversations along the campaign trail, and more.

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Infographic: Week Four of Ontario Election on Twitter (May 24-30)

The Progressive Conservatives are still leading the conversation on Twitter with 43% (-1 from last week) of the mentions as election day on June 12th approaches. Meanwhile, buzz about the Liberals continues to grow with 38% (+4 from last week) of mentions this week and chatter about the NDP decreases to 19% (-3 from last week) of the mentions. All the parties and their leader’s faced criticism in the Twittersphere.

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Infographic: Week Three of Ontario Election on Twitter (May 17-23)

Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives continue to dominate the Ontario election discussion on Twitter with 44% of the mentions, although chatter about the Liberals (34%) and NDP (22%) has increased. Negativity surrounding proposed job cuts to the public sector continues to haunt the Tories in week three. The sentiment toward the PCs is overwhelmingly negative compared to the other parties.

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