clifford.young
About Clifford Young President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
clifford.young@ipsos.com

Cliff Young is President of Ipsos Public Affairs in the United States, and also leads Ipsos global election and political polling risk practice. His research specialties include social and public opinion trends, crisis management, corporate and institution reputation, and election polling. He works with a wide variety of corporate, government, media, and political clients.

Cliff is considered an expert on polling in emerging markets, as well as polling in adverse and hostile conditions. Before coming to Ipsos Public Affairs North America, he was Managing Director of Ipsos Public Affairs Brazil where he started the practice for Ipsos. Cliff has polled on over 100 elections around the world.

He is a frequent writer, analyst, and commentator on elections, communication, and public opinion.

Cliff earned his BA from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and did his graduate work at the University of Chicago (MA and PhD). He trained in survey sampling at the University of Michigan and in political psychology at Stanford. Cliff is also an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS and an instructor at both Columbia University SIPA and University of São Paulo where he teaches courses on public opinion and election forecasting.

Articles by Clifford Young


Trump’s “America First” in Global Context: Global Resonance of Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric

Trump has been winning on his “Make America Great” appeal His message has a strong “American-First” and “Anti-Immigrant” undertone which resonates with the Republican base. How does this rhetoric play out in global context? A strong plurality of global citizens (41%) believes that immigrants take jobs away from their countrymen. Additionally, a near majority of…

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Republicans seen as stronger on Terrorism: Impact of Brussels-like events on US politics

Electorally speaking, terrorist attacks like the one in Brussels are more likely to benefit Republicans than Democrats. Republicans historically have been seen as more credible on “terrorism” and “foreign policy”. The March 2016 Ipsos/Reuters poll puts Republicans at a 7-point advantage on “the war on terror”. Typically, after an attack, public concern about terrorism spikes…

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Why Donald Trump has a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination

New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Nevada: the evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. Those who doubt a Trump victory believe that Republican voters will at some point come to their senses, while others see a narrowing field as one that favors Trump’s competition. We have always been bullish on a Trump nomination. Indeed, in September, we gave Trump a 45 percent chance of being nominated. Today, less than a week before Super Tuesday, we give Trump a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican Party nomination based on the available evidence.

Here’s why.

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Trump and Sanders: Two Sides of the Same Coin

Elections are cyclical: “more of the same v. throw the bums out” Longer-term macro trends: wage stagnation and inequality Widespread belief that Middle Class and America’s best days behind it Inequality or Opportunity Problem However, differential framing of inequality-opportunity problem: Dems: Rich getting Richer; Middle Class squeeze Reps: America losing its greatness; fear of the other

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Forget the debate: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016

The following article by Clifford Young and Julia Clark originally appeared in Reuters: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/10/14/forget-what-you-saw-last-night-two-simple-reasons-a-republican-is-likely-to-win-in-2016/ Elections are not mysterious events subject to the whimsy of unpredictable candidates and voters. They’re actually highly predictable, with a set of variables that influence outcomes in familiar ways. Because of that, we can say, with reasonable confidence, that a Republican…

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Election Poll Accuracy Over Time

Election polls especially suffer from two specific types of measurement error: (1) election salience among voters at the time of the poll and (2) strategic voting decisions at the time of the vote which are at odds with poll responses. On point one, the research literature shows that the farther a poll is out from…

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What an Actual Trump Voter Looks Like

This post, written by Cliff Young and Julia Clark, originally appeared in The Daily Beast.  We thought Trump was just a summer fling for the GOP, but it’s becoming increasingly more likely that some Republicans have met their match. Donald Trump has been a larger-than-life figure for almost a generation: businessman, entertainer, pageant purveyor, and…

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Incumbency is King! Political Fundamentals Put Dems and Clinton’s Odds at Only 30%

Polls, pundits and even bookmakers have already elected President Hillary Clinton. However, at this point in the Game of Oval Office Thrones, models are better oracles than polls – and the models do not like her odds.

Hillary a Slam Dunk, Right?

We are still twenty months out from the US presidential election and ten months from the first primary, but the electoral season is in full swing. Already many pundits are speculating about who will and will not take the White House in November of 2016. At the moment, Hillary Clinton is the consensus favorite. Most cite her polling numbers, popular appeal to women, and formidable war chest.

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Meet Clifford Young | President, US Public Affairs

Get to know Clifford Young, President, US Public Affairs as he discusses how pollsters are born rather than made, and why he finds managing and solving complex research puzzles involving public policy and political polling so interesting!

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All Presidents have their Waterloo: Reflections on Obama’s Declining Approval Ratings

The Obama administration is definitely in a funk.  Polls of all stripes have shown a strong decline in his approval ratings.  Indeed,  Pollster.com shows that from Obama’s inauguration in late January  to mid-December 2012 his approval ratings have dropped by about 11 points—51 to 42 (see below).

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