clifford.young | Ipsos Ideas Spotlight

Clifford Young

About Clifford Young Managing Director
Polling and Public Sector
clifford.young@ipsos.com Cliff is the Managing Director of Ipsos Public Affairs' Polling and Public Sector practice in the US. His research specialties include social and public opinion trends, crisis management, political risk polling and political polling. He has worked with a wide-variety of corporate, government, media, and political clients. He currently oversees Ipsos’US election polling for Reuters, and is the spokesperson for Ipsos Public Affairs in the US.

Cliff is considered an expert on polling in emerging markets, as well as polling in adverse and hostile conditions. Before coming to Ipsos Public Affairs North America, he was Managing Director of Ipsos Public Affairs Brazil where he started the practice for Ipsos. Cliff has polled on over 80 elections around the world; most recently he successfully completed polling on 25 races for the US midterms in 2010, the Nigerian Presidential and Gubernatorial elections in 2011, the Federal and Parliamentary elections in Canada in 2011, as well as the Egyptian and Kuwati Parlimentary elections in 2011/2012 .

Trained in survey sampling and survey methods design, Cliff has led on more than 50 full sample designs in the following countries: Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Chile, South Africa, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Palestine, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Afghanistan, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, Mozambique, Angola, Guinea Bissau, and New Caledonia.

He is a frequent writer, analyst, and commentator on elections, electoral polling, and public opinion.

Cliff earned his BA from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (Magna Cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa) and did his graduate work at the University of Chicago (MA and PhD). He also trained as a survey statistician at the University of Michigan and in Political Psychology at Stanford.

Articles by Clifford Young

Teetering on the edge: The 2013 Kenyan Presidential election

by: Clifford Young | Elections, Politics, Public Affairs | Mar 4, 2013

Today, Keynans will vote for a new president. The whole world is watching as well. Why? The last Kenyan presidential election in 2007 lead to widespread violence as supporters of Raila Odinga accused Mwai Kibaki and his supporters of stealing the election. Given that politics in Kenya is often strongly linked to tribal affiliation, much of the violence was directed by members of one tribe toward those of another. At its core, much of the violence found its origins in many long-standing economic grievances. Against this backdrop, the international community has kept a close eye on this election.

One constitutional change resulting from the violence in 2007 was that if no one candidate gets a majority of the votes, there will automatically be a second round run-off election between the top two vote getters within 30 days of the first round election-day.

Owning the “Change” Agenda: The 2013 Italian parliamentary elections

by: Clifford Young | Politics, Public Affairs | Feb 22, 2013

On February 24^th and 25^th, Italy will hold a general election which will produce a new Prime Minister. This occurs against the backdrop of a dismal economy where over the last 10 years the GDP did not expand –a net 0% growth rate—and with an unemployment rate in the double digits. Mario Monti, the present Prime Minister who came to power in November 2011 after the fall of Berlusconi’s government, was the consensus choice among all parties to push needed economic and market reforms. In the wake of the Greece default, Italian politicians and policy makers wanted to staunch the credibility bleed by chosing Monti, a technocrat and university professor, as Prime Minister. It was thought that he would be the one to push the necessary but unpopular reforms—those most demanded by investors and other international stakeholders.

Just more about Jobs, Jobs, Jobs or Setting the stage for Long-Term Economic Competitiveness

Obama’s 2013 State of the Union Address by: Clifford Young | News, Politics, Public Affairs | Feb 12, 2013

Today, February 12^th 2013, President Obama will give the 227^th State of the Union address and the 5^th of his presidency. This specific speech will have special significance because it is the first of his second term as president. It is his opening volley and will help set the policy tone for the next four years. It, in other worlds, is an important speech.

But what should, and ultimately what will, Obama say?

American Pragmatism or American Radicalism?

by: Clifford Young | News, Politics | Dec 28, 2012

Public Opinion Support for a ‘Mixed’ Deficit Reduction Solution

Washington is presently in crisis mode as time is running out before automatic tax increases and spending cuts go into effect in early 2013. Many analysts believe such measures—the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’—would have a strong negative effect on the economy, pushing the US back into recession.

Chávez, Variable Polls, and Misiones: Reflections on the Venezuelan Presidential Election

by: Clifford Young | Elections, Politics, Public Affairs | Dec 11, 2012

On 7 October 2012, Venezuelans showed up to cast their vote for president on Election Day with an unprecedented sign of voter enthusiasm pushing final turnout up over 80%. This race pitted Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, the incumbent and long-sitting president, against the 40-year-old opposition candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonski. Just this on its own would provide sufficient suspense for most. This electoral campaign, however, was one of particular drama and uncertainty

Storm Clouds on the BRIC Horizon: Falling consumer optimism in Brazil, Russia, India, and China

by: Clifford Young | Finance/Economy, News, Public Affairs, Spotlight | Sep 26, 2012

The economic meltdown of late 2008 and early 2009, while global in nature, most squarely affected Europe, the United States, and more generally the industrialized world. In many of these places, consumer optimism fell between 30 and 40 points and has been very slow to recover since. Such dampened consumer enthusiasm, in turn, equated into serious household de-leveraging and reduced interest in spending on non-essentials goods and services. In contrast, this economic scenario only marginally affected consumers in emerging markets and, in particular, the BRIC countries. Indeed, at the same time the industrialized world was collapsing, consumer optimism and spending in emerging markets reached a fevered pitch. Many proclaimed a new world order with a new South-South economic axis. Within this context, most captains of multinationals had an emerging market strategy to help mitigate the uncertainties in Europe and the US.

That was then. What, though, is the state of global consumer sentiment today in 2012?

Game of Inches #2 — Likely Independent Voters: Who they are? And what do they think?

by: Clifford Young | Elections, Media, News, Polls, Public Affairs, Public Opinion | Jul 11, 2012

The US presidential election in November will be a close one. Many poll watchers, myself included, see this one as a nail bitter which will be won at the margins. I still strongly believe that Obama will be the victor (link) but details and not generalities will carry the day.

In elections of this type, success is typically defined by a percentage point here, another there. This puts a special premium on targeting and winning over those undecideds constituencies who have not chosen their champion. One such group is likely independent voters who will probably show up at the ballot box, but do not lean strongly towards Republicans or Democrats. Without a doubt, both the Romney and Obama camps will be giving this segment a very close look this electoral season.

A Game of Inches #1: Obama’s Lukewarm Faithful

by: Clifford Young | Elections, News, Polls, Public Affairs, Public Opinion | Jun 14, 2012

The Obama-Romney match up is shaping up to be a nail biter. Our most recent Reuters-Ipsos poll has them in a statistical deadheat; other polls show a similar narrowing. Part of this trend is without a doubt a direct result of a dip in economic optimism, a dysfunctional Europe and lousy jobs report. But this variability is also just the natural ebb and flow of the election. Sometimes you are up; other times you are down.

Wisconsin is all noise: Obama will still win in November

by: Clifford Young | Elections, Media, News, Polls, Public Affairs, Public Opinion | Jun 6, 2012

The sitting Republican Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker beat the Democratic challenger Tom Barrett 53% to 46% yesterday in a recall election. Many pundits had touted Wisconsin as a political bellweather— “as goes Wisconsin, so goes the nation in November and beyond”. A Walker victory signals a resurgent Republican party with its revamped small government, collective-bargaining-busting mantra. In contrast, a Walker loss would be a strong ‘proof point’ that the Obama agenda is here to stay.

Well, Walker won in Wisconsin.

Is President Obama up or down?: The effect of question wording on levels of presidential support

by: Clifford Young | Elections, News, Public Affairs, Public Opinion | May 18, 2012

Presidential approval ratings are the most ubiquitous polling data out there. Given their importance, approval ratings receive special scrutiny from political actors and poll watchers alike. Ipsos has tracked approval ratings in the US since 2001, and during this time, our polls have shown a consistent 2 to 4 point difference when compared to the market average (the average of all polls at the time).

Why is this? We hypothesize two possibilities: (1) first, we have a problem with our sample composition, or (2) second, that we measure presidential approval differently than other polling firms.

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